Rafael Guerra

Senior Macroeconomic Analyst

Rafael Guerra joined the BIS in 2020. Previously, he worked in the Revenues Division of the Mexican Ministry of Finance. He is currently an adjunct lecturer at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM), teaching applied macroeconomics courses. Rafael holds a BA in economics and an MA in applied economics from ITAM.

Fields of interest

Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
Econometrics

All BIS publications (9)

BIS Bulletin No 133

BIS Bulletin No 133 19 Aug 2026

High public debt in the Americas: non-linear implications for risk premia and inflation expectations

Public debt has reached multi-decade highs in the Americas. Additionally, public interest costs have generally increased over…

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Alejandrina Salcedo

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Christian Upper

BIS Working Paper No 1324 21 Jan 2026

The macro-financial impact of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America

This paper investigates the impact of domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on macroeconomic and financial variables in…

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Alexandre Tombini

BIS Working Paper No 1308 24 Nov 2025

Environmental factors and capital flows to emerging markets

This paper examines the impact of environmental factors on international capital flows – specifically portfolio, bank,…

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Alexandre Tombini

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Christian Upper

BIS Bulletin No 113

BIS Bulletin No 113 29 Sep 2025

Financial conditions indices in Latin America

Global factors shaped financial conditions in Latin America in 2025, with exchange rate appreciations against the US dollar…

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Alexandre Tombini

BIS Working Paper No 1217 14 Oct 2024

Global inflation, inflation expectations and central banks in emerging markets

This work studies the impact of global inflation on surveyed inflation expectations of private analysts in emerging market…

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Berenice Martinez

BIS Working Paper No 1209 9 Sep 2024

Latin America's non-linear response to pandemic inflation

This paper estimates empirical Taylor rules to analyze the recent monetary policy of the five main Latin American inflation…

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Christian Upper

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BIS Working Paper No 1196 8 Jul 2024

Digital payments, informality and economic growth

We examine the relationship between digital payment innovation, economic growth and informal activities in 101 economies over…

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Alexandre Tombini

Towards liquid and resilient government debt markets in EMEs

Publication 4 Mar 2024

Towards liquid and resilient government debt markets in EMEs

The investor base and size of hedging markets matter for liquidity in emerging economies' sovereign debt markets.

Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik

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Alexandre Tombini

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Christian Upper

BIS Bulletin No 71

BIS Bulletin No 71 29 Mar 2023

Fiscal and monetary policy in emerging market economies: what are the risks and policy trade-offs?

Since 2021, monetary policy has tightened globally in response to the surge in inflation. Fiscal policies have generally…

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All external publications (4)

External publication 22 Jan 2026

Can environmental factors affect capital flows to emerging markets?

Christian Upper

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Alexandre Tombini

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External publication 17 Feb 2025

Latin America's nonlinear monetary response to pandemic inflation

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Christian Upper

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External publication 14 Nov 2024

Do EME central banks have room to shape inflation expectations when global inflation surges?

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Berenice Martinez

External publication 29 Sep 2024

Can digital payments boost growth and reduce informality?

Alexandre Tombini

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