Asia Office Publications

Browse through the latest publications produced by, or in collaboration with, the Asia Office.

Displaying 1-10 of 183
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1362 17 Jun 2026
Embracing carbon uncertainty in portfolio construction
We propose a framework for constructing fixed-income portfolios of sovereign bonds that integrates financial and environmental considerations.
Authors: Dora Xia and Omar Zulaica
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1361 16 Jun 2026
Bond yield responses to macro news: the role of macro forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty
We study how forecaster disagreement and interest rate uncertainty shape bond market reactions to economic data releases.
Authors: Peter Hördahl, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Dora Xia
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1355 02 Jun 2026
Making stablecoins stable(r): can regulation help?
We model a stablecoin issuer that optimises capital, cash and bond holdings under persistent stablecoin flows. Absent regulation, the issuer holds little capital and favours interest-bearing but less-liquid bonds over cash.
Authors: Tirupam Goel, Ulf Lewrick and Isha Agarwal
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1353 28 May 2026
The strength of the inflation-output link in China
We systematically investigate the relationship between China's inflation, economic slack, and expectations through the lens of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC). Extending existing research, we employ inflation expectations from Consensus Economics…
Authors: Mikael Juselius and Wenzhe Li
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1319 17 Dec 2025
Housing wealth effects in China
We estimate the effects of changes in house prices on consumption using unique data of Alipay transactions from Chinese households, spanning from January 2017 to March 2023. We find significant housing wealth effects: changes in house prices are…
Authors: Benoit Mojon, Han Qiu, Fang Wang and Michael Weber
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1316 11 Dec 2025
Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of the 2025 US tariffs
This paper develops a multi-country, multi-sector trade model with input-output linkages to analyze the global macroeconomic effects of the United States'(US) 2025 tariff policies. The model incorporates endogenous labor supply and captures the…
Author: Hongyan Zhao
Publication BIS Bulletin No 118 03 Dec 2025
International footprint of global firms: residence and nationality perspectives on maritime shipments
Nationality-based measurement that consolidates firms according to the nationality of the ultimate parent firm provides new insights on questions of ownership and control that underpin the operation of global value chains. Nationality-based shipment data…
Authors: Han Qiu, Hyun Song Shin and Leanne Si Ying Zhang
Publication BIS Bulletin No 114 13 Oct 2025
Financial channel implications of a weaker dollar for emerging market economies
The depreciation of the US dollar in 2025 has occurred against the backdrop of continued resilience of trade and economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs). A depreciating dollar affects both borrowers' and foreign investors' balance sheets and…
Authors: Mikael Juselius, Philip Wooldridge and Dora Xia
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1287 04 Sep 2025
Banks' regulatory risk tolerance
In managing their capital, banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring "management" buffers. Using 68 quarters of data on 17 US and 17 euro-area banks, we find systematic reductions in…
Authors: Mikael Juselius, Aurea Ponte Marques and Nikola Tarashev
Publication BIS Working Paper No 1285 28 Aug 2025
R* in East Asia: business, financial cycles, and spillovers
This paper provides new estimates of the neutral interest rate, or r*, with a frequency domain approach using quarterly data from China, Japan, Korea, and the US. Utilizing band spectrum regressions, we estimate two types of neutral rates, which hold over…
Authors: Pierre L Siklos, Dora Xia and Hongyi Chen

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