| Guidelines This chapter describes the identification of weak banks and various measures for dealing with weak banks. The contents of this chapter are based on: |
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Weak banks are a worldwide phenomenon, presenting challenges for bank supervisors and resolution authorities in all countries, regardless of the political structure, financial system and level of economic and technical development. Bank supervisors must be prepared to minimise the occurrence of weak banks and deal with them effectively when they arise.
For supervision to operate effectively, the proper regulatory, accounting and legal framework, as set out in the Basel core principles for effective banking supervision, must be in place. Supervisors must distinguish clearly between symptoms and causes of bank problems. Early intervention is essential when addressing weak banks to prevent the escalation of problems and mitigate potential risks.
Weak banks often face similar challenges. Insights have been drawn by pooling the experiences of supervisors and resolution authorities, especially the specific actions that have proven effective – or ineffective – in various circumstances. The lack of contingency arrangements and understanding of the tools available for dealing with weak banks have, in some cases, resulted in unnecessary delays in supervisory and resolution actions. These delays have been key contributors to the high costs of resolving banking problems. The Committee believes that appropriate guidance could reduce the costs and spillover effects of these problems.
The following terms are used throughout this chapter and have the meaning given below:
| 1 | FSB, Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions, April 2024. |
This chapter is not intended to serve as a comprehensive supervisory handbook covering all types of preventive action, since many actions should take place in the course of supervision. Rather, the goal of this chapter is to provide guidance on identifying weak banks and addressing their challenges effectively.
This chapter is designed for the supervisory community, including international financial institutions (IFIs) that advise supervisors. It is relevant across a wide range of contexts, whether the institution is a small local bank or a large international banking group, a public or privately owned bank, or a universal bank, financial group, or financial conglomerate. It should be recognised that certain aspects of this chapter may be more suitable to specific types of banks. For example, stress testing requirements are typically more relevant for larger and systemically important banks.
The structure of this chapter reflects the different stages of addressing weak banks. It begins by outlining the guiding principles for supervisors in dealing with weak banks. It then highlights techniques for identifying weak banks, followed by an overview of corrective measures that can help turn around a weak bank.
When dealing with weak banks, supervisory actions aim at preserving the value of the bank's assets with minimal disruption to its operations (ie maintaining the economic entity). These actions are guided by the objective of minimising resolution costs and mitigating systemic impact. However, in certain cases, it may be necessary for the bank, as a legal entity, to cease to exist.
Consistent with the Basel Core Principles, the guiding principles for a supervisor when dealing with weak banks include:
It is important to distinguish between the symptoms and causes of bank problems. The symptoms of weak banks are usually poor asset quality, lack of profitability, loss of capital, excessive leverage (eg in excess of the leverage ratio), excessive risk exposure (eg in terms of concentration of risk), reputation problems and liquidity concerns. The different symptoms often emerge together. The causes of weak banks can usually be traced to one or more of the following conditions: an inappropriate business model given the business environment, poor or inappropriate governance, poor decision-making by senior management and/or a misalignment of internal incentive structures with external shareholder/stakeholder interests.
Banking difficulties often arise from a combination of factors, with credit problems being the most common due to lending being central to banking. While strong capital requirements are essential for banking sector stability, they must be complemented by robust liquidity management, as liquidity can deteriorate rapidly and disrupt operations. In addition to credit and liquidity risk, banks’ weaknesses may stem from market, operational, interest rate or strategic risks.
Excessive risk exposures, credit losses, liquidity problems, and capital shortfalls stem from weaknesses in corporate governance3 (eg weak oversight by the board of directors, absence of an effective risk appetite framework), compensation policies (eg those focused on short- term earnings, without risk adjustments) and internal control systems. These shortcomings frequently fail to prevent the following issues:
External factors such as negative macroeconomic shocks (including a currency crisis, a weak real economy, inadequate preparation for financial sector liberalisation, a massive market liquidity squeeze etc) may also lead to problems for banks. While a well-managed and financially sound bank may withstand these pressures, such external shocks are likely to expose weaknesses in management and control in weaker banks.
When a bank approaches failure, supervisors, in coordination with the resolution authority, should prepare detailed and comprehensive contingency plans to respond promptly to the bank's distress. These plans can draw on a wide range of early intervention instruments that supervisors can use in identifying and dealing with weak banks, including statutory powers and the ability to exercise moral suasion. In drawing up their plans, supervisors must thoroughly understand the limits of these powers and their capacity.
A supervisory contingency plan should encompass a range of scenarios, from distress at a large, systemically important bank to the decline of a smaller bank that can be managed with little disruption. Systemic problems may arise with respect to smaller banks when a number of them become distressed simultaneously or where a small bank has a critical position in a particular market segment.
For non-systemic banks, the supervisor and resolution authority should consider at an early stage whether a detailed, individual resolution plan for the bank, including a resolvability assessment, is needed, or if a range of general scenarios is sufficient.
The supervisory contingency plan should be set according to a risk-based approach and tested regularly. Generally, it should meet the objectives implied by the following actions:
In addition to financial information, the supervisor must have rapid access to a wide range of relevant non-financial information about the bank, including its organisational and legal structure, participation in payment systems etc. Some of this information should be kept by the supervisor; the rest (primarily operating data that are frequently changed) should be kept at the bank.
Supervisors should ensure that banks themselves, especially systemic banks, have a credible plan for handling periods of unexpected stress, including episodes that will pose a serious risk to their viability. The recovery plan is drawn up by the bank to identify options to restore financial strength or viability in case of severe stress. Supervisors should review the recovery plan as part of the overall supervisory process, assessing its credibility and ability to be effectively implemented. This should be done in close cooperation with the resolution authorities.
The recovery plan should describe the bank's strategy and organisational setup and the measures available for restoring the bank's financial strength and viability under stress, especially with regard to a capital shortfall and liquidity pressures. It should furthermore comprise credible governance processes and early warning indicators with trigger levels that ensure the timely implementation of recovery measures and the continuous operation of critical services.
Recovery plans should be updated annually, or more frequently if there has been a material change to a firm's business model or structure. The firms should test their menu of recovery options by selecting the appropriate one(s) against a variety of stress scenarios set by the authorities and implied by their business model and risk profile.
Importantly, any sort of financial difficulties (particularly if these are known or suspected in the market) will require the bank to have adequate liquidity to enable it to meet its obligations while the weaknesses are being corrected or other action is taken. Hence, effective and detailed contingency liquidity planning is necessary. Such a plan should, at a minimum, address how to resolve a liquidity crisis triggered by a loss of confidence in the bank itself. The plan should anticipate that the bank may experience difficulties in rolling over its liabilities and demonstrate how it would continue to meet its obligations for a reasonable period of time in such a case. Supervisors should request and regularly examine bank contingency funding plans (or liquidity recovery plans) that provide or activate new funding sources, allow for capital to be raised in a short period of time, or provide for assets to be sold or securitised.
In practice, individual weaknesses rarely occur in isolation. Bank and their supervisors must often address a range of interconnected problems simultaneously. The keys to turning around a weak bank are timely assessment and a comprehensive, credible and proportionate corrective action plan. A deep understanding of the bank’s risk culture and appetite of the bank is essential during this process, as is the ability to effectively challenge management's assumptions. Depending on the circumstances, disclosing that the bank has initiated a corrective action plan may help in maintaining or restoring confidence in the bank.
Distinguishing a common weakness from one that might lead to solvency problems is a complex task. Potential problems are usually connected to the rationale behind the strategy. For large banks, early identification is particularly challenging because the combination of multiple business lines might hide the actual contribution of each facility to overall performance and compromise the early detection of weaknesses. For simpler banks, aggressive plans incompatible with the bank's structure and scale, and rapid growth when associated with historically poor earnings, should be of particular concern.
While improving the capital position addresses the immediate symptom, supervisors should also investigate the root causes of the decline to determine whether additional measures are needed. For instance:
A drop in the bank's capital adequacy ratios below, or close to, the supervisory and/or statutory minimum should trigger formal action by the supervisor against the bank to restore the ratio.
The supervisor's main consideration is whether, and how soon, the bank can restore the level and quality of its capital to an acceptable level. The bank should therefore be required to provide the supervisor with a clear account of how it will restore the capital ratios (eg common equity Tier 1 ratio, total capital ratio) and the time frame, with relevant milestones, for doing so.
It would be prudent for the supervisor to ask for assurances from the bank's major shareholders that they continue to support the bank and are prepared to contribute to restoring the capital position by means of capital injection if the bank's position deteriorates further.
If the existing shareholders are unable to provide the necessary capital injection, other options can be considered, such as:
A less obvious problem involves a capital adequacy ratio that drops (eg because of a loss) to a level below what the market expects, but remains above the supervisory and/or statutory minimum. This may affect confidence in the bank, particularly if there is an expectation that the ratio may fall further in the future.
Some banks have demonstrated limited understanding of, or control over, their potential balance sheet growth and liquidity needs. This has led to failures in pricing the risk of off-balance sheet vehicles that may need to be funded on-balance sheet during times of market stress. In such circumstances, a capital injection to restore the capital adequacy ratio to pre-loss levels may be necessary to reassure depositors and the broader market of the bank’s stability. Supervisors must closely coordinate with the bank’s management to address these issues effectively.
Asset quality problems can become serious in different ways. Provisions and write-offs can result in the bank incurring losses, leading to a reduction in its capital adequacy ratio. This is one of the most common reasons for a decline in a bank's capital strength. But even if the bank continues to make a profit, poor asset quality can still pose problems for four main reasons:
For asset quality problems, on-site examinations are usually the most useful way of evaluating the extent of the problem. The examination should focus on whether problem loans are being identified promptly, whether the bank has a dedicated problem loan management/recovery unit that is operating effectively, whether problem loans are being classified correctly and whether adequate provisions are being set aside.
On asset quality reviews, the supervisor needs to ensure that these are forward-looking, considering macroprudential analyses. The supervisor is likely to be able to make use of: (i) peer group comparisons (eg experience from other on-site examinations); and (ii) stress testing to gauge the scale of the problem and the particular areas of concern. Supervisors are increasingly requiring some larger banks and banks with significant concentrations to do stress testing as a routine management practice.
A bank with asset quality problems should devise an appropriate remedial action plan. This may include:
In practice, however, certain principles apply no matter what approaches the bank takes. First, the bank needs a realistic assessment of its current asset quality and should not be tempted to hide the problem by entering into cosmetic restructurings with insolvent debtors. Second, it needs to put resources into strengthening its problem loan management unit so that it can boost recoveries. Third, it needs to be prepared to "bite the bullet" on provisioning. Prolonged problems with asset quality cast a shadow over the bank. To be effective, provisions must be determined on the basis of the short-term realisable value for collateral, or a conservative present value estimate of the borrower's likely repayments, not on longer-term, potentially optimistic projections of future value. If the bank has the resources or can secure additional resources (for example, by capital injection), it is preferable to try to clean up the balance sheet as expeditiously as possible. This may, however, result in the bank suffering a large reduction in profitability and capital.
The supervisor will almost certainly expect the bank to set targets in terms of a reduction of problem loans to a certain level by a particular time and will want to monitor the progress the bank is making by means of on-site visits or reports by the bank's external or internal auditors.
Beyond dealing with the immediate problem, the supervisor should also ensure that the bank fully reviews its processes for credit assessment, credit approval and credit monitoring. Weaknesses in these will almost certainly have played a large part in the general asset quality problem.
Supervisors do not select senior management for banks, but they should be responsible for evaluating the expertise and integrity (the “fit and proper" test) of proposed directors and senior management, and they should prevent or discourage appointments they deem detrimental to the interests of depositors. They may require one or more members of the management body or senior management to be removed or replaced if they are found unfit to perform their duties or deemed detrimental to the interests of depositors. Supervisors should also evaluate directors and senior managers as part of the regular supervision of the bank. Moreover, supervisors should ensure that a bank’s corporate governance structure provides appropriate incentives that support the bank’s business plan; the governance structure should clearly communicate risk limits and expectations for integrity throughout the organisation. Supervisors should also understand the bank’s management succession plans and opportunities.
If the supervisor is of the view that an employee is not up to the job, as indicated by the bank's performance, it may be difficult in many jurisdictions for the supervisor to formally request the removal of the employee in the absence of fraud or massive incompetence. In such situations it may be more effective for the supervisor to discuss the quality of management with the board of directors or the major shareholders of the bank and to seek their voluntary commitment to strengthening management. The emphasis should be on bringing in strong individuals with the skills the bank needs in key positions – eg CEO, financial controller or head of credit – or consultants to boost the performance of the existing team.
As a last resort, if the law permits, a supervisor may appoint an individual to run the affairs of the bank temporarily for the purpose of seeking solutions to the difficulties encountered. The appointment should be made in a manner that does not give the impression that the responsibility of bank management has shifted to the supervisor.
Deteriorating earnings must be addressed, as they will lead directly to reduced liquidity and weaker solvency. Banks must be required to reduce or restructure unprofitable activities (eg close branches) and to reduce costs (eg cut bonuses and salaries and/or the number of employees). If the problems are severe, a significant reorganisation of the bank may be necessary. In parallel, other actions must be taken to turn around its earnings, such as changes to the business model and operating plans.
Supervisors and banks alike should consider operational limitations to the transferability of liquidity. They should ensure that during economically stressed periods, liquidity is maintained in a quantity sufficient to comply with legal and regulatory restrictions on the transfer of liquidity among regulated entities.
Supervisors' liquidity requirements may differ in terms of how required minimum levels of liquidity are expressed. A decline in liquidity below the required minimum will normally trigger a series of actions by the supervisor, such as requiring the bank to indicate how, and when, it plans to restore its liquidity to an acceptable level. Corrective measures must first strengthen the short-term resilience of the bank's liquidity risk profile by ensuring that it has sufficient high-quality liquid assets to survive a stress scenario. Further, the bank should implement structural measures to promote resilience over a longer time horizon (eg increasing the most stable components of funding, reducing the loan-to-deposit ratio).
If a bank is unable to restore its liquidity position, or the position shows signs of weakening further, prompt action is critical. To facilitate such action, the supervisor should require the bank to prepare detailed cash flow projections that would allow it to continue at least to the end of the business week, at which time the supervisor would decide whether the bank should reopen in the following week. Stress tests should be carried out based on these projections to give a better idea of how long the bank's liquidity can last if the liquidity losses continue or accelerate.
Stress tests and scenario analyses aim to identify potential weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a bank's liquidity position, enabling changes to be put in place to counter those weaknesses (eg a diversification of funding sources or an increase in contingent liquidity sources). The testing helps identify and quantify the depth, source and degree of potential liquidity and funding strain, and to analyse possible effects on the bank's cash flow, liquidity position, costs and other aspects of its financial condition over various time horizons.
The bank can take several actions to improve its liquidity position. First, as regards withdrawals and assuming the bank's underlying position is healthy, it can issue statements to reassure the public, and it may wish to address large depositors directly. Second, as regards its liquidity stock, it can try to secure lines from counterparts or sell or repurchase assets so as to boost liquidity. It can also seek liquidity support from its major shareholders.
Private sector mechanisms should usually be exhausted before any emergency liquidity assistance from the central bank is considered, partly to reduce moral hazard and partly to minimise the risk of losing public funds. To reduce the risk of losing public funds, collateral should be required, if possible, for emergency liquidity assistance. Depending on the circumstances, the central bank may wish to help restore confidence by issuing a statement confirming that it stands ready to provide liquidity support in the current case and in other cases should it be necessary to maintain financial stability.
The bank's risk management processes must be adequate to address all risks that the bank is facing.
Bank management has a duty to establish prudent risk limits in relation to its financial strength and risk management capabilities and routinely monitor these limits and take prompt corrective action if the risk threatens the financial condition of the bank.
Similarly, in cases where systematic/operational deficiencies in operational areas lead to large losses, erosion of public confidence and possibly insolvency. Supervisors must require the bank to address the deficiencies promptly.
More generally, banks should also have business resilience and continuity plans in place to limit losses in the event of business disruption. Banks are exposed to disruptive events. Some of these events may prevent the bank from fulfilling some or all of its business obligations. To provide resilience against these risks, a bank's business continuity plans should be commensurate with the nature, size and complexity of its operations. Such plans should consider different types of likely or plausible scenarios to which the bank may be vulnerable.4
When a bank cannot resolve its weaknesses on its own, it should consider a private sector solution. This may consist of a merger or acquisition. Banks, even those that fail, are attractive targets to investors, especially financial institutions, because of their intrinsic franchise value.5
| 5 | Intangible benefits may include instant access to a particular market segment, acquisition of a desirable deposit pool and a financial distribution system with a minimum investment. |
Arrangements for a merger or acquisition should take place early, ie before the bank fails and enters resolution, and may be facilitated by the supervisor. In some cases, owners and certain creditors may have to make concessions to attract acquirers. Acquirers should have capital sufficient to acquire and run the new bank and a management team capable of implementing a reorganisation programme. If the acquirer is a foreign bank, the supervisor faces additional concerns, such as the laws and regulations of the relevant foreign jurisdictions. The supervisor will also need to coordinate closely with foreign authorities to learn about the acquirer and its related activities.
Authorities should keep in mind that, even in good times, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are not easy for the institutions involved. This stems from different corporate cultures and jurisdictional legal requirements, the incompatibility of IT systems, the need for personnel layoffs etc. The integration of staff and information systems must be very carefully thought through in any merger plan.
The interested acquiring institution should have a clear understanding of the underlying causes and problems of the weak bank. Full and accurate information should be provided by the weak bank to all potential acquirers, although this may have to be provided sequentially and under strict confidentiality agreements.
Owners of a weak bank who are trying to sell their stake to minimise their own personal losses will generally not attach great importance to the identity of the prospective buyers. These circumstances may open the way for some potential buyers who may be less interested in the banking operations of the bank than in its legal title and registration. Such buyers may wish to misuse the bank (eg for money laundering) or use it for other business interests that may jeopardise the bank’s continuing existence. In accordance with the Basel Core Principles, supervisors are obliged to check the reliability of any new shareholder and have the power to reject applicants. Supervisors should use these powers uncompromisingly.
The advantages of an M&A solution are that it:
In an M&A transaction, the supervisor should actively monitor the problems in the acquired bank and take steps to require that they be adequately addressed by the management of the resultant bank.
The exercise of resolution actions and powers is the responsibility of the resolution authority; however, supervisors should be aware of bank-specific resolution issues and cooperate closely with the resolution authority during their day-to-day supervision.
The Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributes of effective resolution regimes for financial institutions (Key Attributes), is the international standard for resolution regimes and sets out the core features of effective resolution regimes for financial institutions that are, or could be, systemically significant if they fail.
This module describes expectations to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.
This module describes expectations and practices relating to capital adequacy.
This module describes expectations for corporate governance.
This module describes expectations for credit risk and counterparty credit risk management.
This module describes expectations for external audit and sets out references related to public disclosure.
This module describes expectations for banks’ internal audit and compliance functions.
This module describes expectations for liquidity risk management.
This module sets out references related to market risk and interest rate risk.
This module describes expectations for the management of operational risk and operational resilience.
This module describes expectations for the management of problem assets and expected credit losses.
This module describes the application of proportionality in prudential regulation and supervision.
This module describes expectations for risk management.
This module describes the nature and application of prudential supervision.