Skip to main content

Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty

Type
Publication
Series
BIS Paper 163
Date Published
15 December 2025

Periods of heightened uncertainty have challenged central banks in unprecedented ways. The shocks of recent years – from the Covid-19 pandemic and persistent inflation to volatile financial conditions and geopolitical tensions – have tested the resilience of monetary policy frameworks and the agility of policy responses worldwide. Against this backdrop, central banks have reassessed their analytical tools, decision-making processes and communication strategies to ensure the continued effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy.

This volume provides a comprehensive view of how central banks have navigated uncertainty in recent times. Drawing on both survey-based evidence and in-depth case studies from 10 individual central banks, the chapters explore the evolving role of scenario analysis, the integration of high-frequency data and expert judgment, and the increasing importance of transparent and adaptive communication.


The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.