My aim today is to describe how AI is reshaping the euro area economy. Although the development of frontier AI models is primarily taking place in the United States and China, the adoption of AI will be a key determinant of European productivity growth in the coming years, while expenditure on AI adoption also currently constitutes a significant stimulus to the euro area economy. In addition, European firms are part of the global AI supply chain, while European investors are contributing to the funding of the global buildout of AI infrastructure through equity and debt markets and the banking system.
I will also describe the key patterns we see in the data, with a primary focus on how the surveys conducted by the ECB can provide insights into the AI adoption process and the implications for the financial system.
Aggregate trends
Digital investment in the euro area has expanded by 73 per cent in real terms since 2014, increasing from 2.3 per cent to 3.3 per cent of GDP (Chart 1a). While digital investment has grown far more quickly in the United States, the surge in digital investment (with an estimated clear acceleration since 2024) marks a distinct shift in the structure of the euro area economy. As shown in Chart 1b, in the euro area digital investment has primarily been in intangible assets, while investment in data centres has constituted a relatively small share.