Thank you, Bo, for that kind introduction. There are few places I would rather be than on these beautiful grounds at the start of October. Seeing the sugar maples along the Lawn starting to turn their distinctive shade of Cavalier orange is one of this country's iconic scholastic images. I am proud to have received my Ph.D. from the University of Virginia (UVA), and I have many wonderful memories of my time spent here in Charlottesville. It is an honor to speak with you today.
This is a consequential moment for the U.S. economy and a challenging time for monetary policymakers. The economy is being shaped by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), shifting geopolitical dynamics, and underlying demographic trends. Compounding these structural changes, the economy has also faced a cascade of shocks, including an energy shock, a massive AI infrastructure buildout, and significant changes in trade policy. I see the economy as likely to show continued resilience, despite these challenges, by adding jobs and extending a six-and-a-half-year-long expansion. However, inflation is too high and has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target for more than five years. While I view the risks to both economic activity and employment as roughly balanced at this point, I see upside risks to inflation.
Today I will discuss in more detail how I see the economy unfolding, including for both sides of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Then, I will discuss the FOMC's policy decision last month and offer a few thoughts on how I will assess the appropriate future path of monetary policy.
