Good morning. Let me add my welcome to today’s conference.
I wish I could have welcomed you in person, but I will be on a plane when you watch this.
Nevertheless, I wanted to say how much I appreciate your participation at this conference. We very much value the collaboration with the OECD and the CEPR in putting together the program for this conference.
This conference on the Economics of Ageing and Longevity is an opportunity to lift our eyes to the distant horizon.
Among longer-term issues facing central banks, demographic transition is one of the most important. It is key to the evolution of productivity, potential growth (or g*) and long-term equilibrium interest rates (or r*).
This is why the Bank of Korea has invested heavily in research on structural issues, and why we are hosting this conference.
It is fair to say that what is happening in Korea today foreshadows what many other countries will face tomorrow. I also note the sub-title of the conference: “From Challenges to Opportunities”. Demography is a powerful force, but, as they say, “demography is not destiny’.
Over the broad sweep of history, we know how much productivity and long-term growth is determined by the generation and dissemination of knowledge. The questions that follow are especially sharply posed today as AI has burst on the scene.
All these questions are reflected in the program to this conference.
This morning, Professor Fumio Hayashi's keynote draws lessons from Japan over the last three decades. As he will show, there are some important pitfalls to avoid but also some hopeful lessons on why demography is not destiny.
Other papers today shed important light on how ageing reshapes the environment for monetary policy.
This afternoon, Professor Jisoo Hwang's keynote takes up the motherhood effect behind ultra-low fertility. Other papers ask how status competition in education depresses birth rates, and why ageing economies must absorb larger fiscal adjustments in far less time.
Tomorrow, we turn to opportunities— although with the justified caution as you would expect in a conference hosted by a central bank.
Following Professor Kwanho Shin's keynote, Session 3 asks whether technology can offset a shrinking workforce.
Here, we see some evidence of a boost from AI. But we will also hear why AI may not be a panacea.
Let me also say that it is particularly good to have my old friend Andrew Scott here.
Andrew’s keynote revisits the relationship between declining fertility and output per worker, drawing on seven decades of data.
A panel on innovation and ageing brings the conference to a close.
Let me leave you with one final thought.
Unlike the short-term shocks that we spend most of our time addressing, demographic change announces itself decades in advance. It is a formidable challenge, but we can see it coming and prepare in good time.
Today, Korea finds itself at the core of the AI ecosystem and is benefiting from unprecedented semiconductor production and AI-driven investment. This is the moment to prepare, not to postpone. I trust these discussions will lay valuable foundations for that work.
Thank you again for being here, and I wish you two days of lively debate and warm exchanges. See you in person next time.
