Ladies and Gentlemen,
Trade disputes and the ongoing conflicts are undermining confidence at the international level, casting a shadow over the global economic outlook. In recent weeks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its global growth projections for the next two years, to less than 3 per cent, well below the average recorded in past decades.
Concerns over a potential trade war intensified on 2 April, when the United States introduced sweeping tariff hikes, which were partly paused in the weeks that followed. The announcement sparked significant volatility in the financial markets, with firms most exposed to international trade hit hardest. Investors shifted towards assets that are considered safer, pushing the price of gold to new all-time highs.
Unlike in previous periods of uncertainty, the yields on long-term US Treasury bonds decreased and the dollar depreciated (Figure 1.a). This trend persisted in the weeks that followed, despite a partial easing of financial tensions and a rebound in stock prices. This raises important questions about the future structure of the international monetary system and the dominant role of the US dollar as both a reserve and a trade invoicing currency.
