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Type
Publication
Series
BIS Working Paper 604
Date Published
16 January 2017
Sources
Bank for International Settlements Americas office
JEL Classification

Empirical and institutional evidence finds considerable time variation in the degree of wage indexation to past inflation, a finding that is at odds with the assumption of constant indexation parameters in most New-Keynesian DSGE models. We build a DSGE model with endogenous wage indexation in which utility maximizing workers select a wage indexation rule in response to aggregate shocks and monetary policy. We show that workers index wages to past inflation when output fluctuations are driven by technology and permanent inflation-target shocks, whereas they index to trend inflation when aggregate demand shocks dominate output fluctuations. The model's equilibrium wage setting can explain the time variation in wage indexation found in post-WWII U.S. data.


The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.