Skip to main content

Filling in the blanks: network structure and interbank contagion

Type
Publication
Series
BIS Working Paper 455
Date Published
27 August 2014
Sources
Bank for International Settlements
JEL Classification

The network pattern of financial linkages is important in many areas of banking and finance. Yet bilateral linkages are often unobserved, and maximum entropy serves as the leading method for estimating counterparty exposures. This paper proposes an efficient alternative that combines information-theoretic arguments with economic incentives to produce more realistic interbank networks that preserve important characteristics of the original interbank market. The method loads the most probable links with the largest exposures consistent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank, yielding networks with minimum density. When used in a stress-testing context, the minimum-density solution overestimates contagion, whereas maximum entropy underestimates it. Using the two benchmarks side by side defines a useful range that bounds the cost of contagion in the true interbank network when counterparty exposures are unknown.

JEL classification: G21, L14, D85, C63


The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.