Statisticians, including those in central banks, have quickly adapted to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. But, three years after the start of the global crisis, can some normalisation be expected in the official statistical landscape, returning us to the situation prevailing before the crisis? Or, alternatively, should central banks be fundamentally rethinking the way they produce and consume data in a “new normal” state of the world?
he pandemic underlined that data producers have to provide more and more varied types of information to their users, not least by leveraging the wealth of sources available. This calls for the production of more high-frequency and timely indicators as well as for providing new types of indicator (eg sentiment indicators, policy credibility indices) on topics that are still insufficiently covered by existing official statistical frameworks. As key elements of national statistical systems (NSS), central banks have been at the forefront of global initiatives taken to address these issues.
The recent crisis was also a reminder that the statistical landscape has to permanently evolve, for instance to make the most of the opportunities provided by new big data analytics and to reach out to user groups more effectively. Central banks have been well positioned from this perspective, drawing on their unique role as producers and consumers of data to support their policies.
Moreover, recent developments have highlighted the urgency of dealing with a number of long-standing challenges. This calls in particular for the adaptation of statistical frameworks to better reflect structural developments in the global economy, especially as regards globalisation, digitalisation in finance and sustainability aspects such as climate change. Therefore, “central bank statistics have to change as well in order to support and reflect structural changes”, as argued by Claudia Buch, Vice-President of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
This suggests that central bank statisticians may be facing a quite heavy agenda to address both the new lessons of the pandemic and the longer-term challenges; in other words, they have to continue “measuring the past to better understand the present and chart the future”, as emphasised by Claudio Borio, Head of BIS Monetary and Economic Department, in his opening remarks. A number of supporting factors could be helpful in this direction.
A first one is innovation, as the new normal for central banks statisticians is likely to rely heavily on the use of data science to perform their traditional tasks. There is no such thing as a rigid, unchanging statistical framework, and statistical sources and tools have to be continuously refined to fit with evolving challenges – for instance to capture the long-term consequences of the pandemic, assess the sustainability of economic development, and track the global footprint of international firms.
Second, a clear message from the central banking community is that many of the challenges faced during recent crises could be addressed by making a better use of the large amount of micro-level information available in today’s modern societies. Here again, technological innovation can open up new perspectives, especially to facilitate the use of data that are available “organically” (ie independently of “designed” traditional statistical compilation exercises such as surveys and censuses) and to spur research using very granular but confidential data sets.
Third, the demand for timely, high-quality and varied statistical data is likely to remain strong, calling for statistical frameworks that can be adapted to meet evolving policy objectives and user needs. Several initiatives have been launched to make the global statistical infrastructure more flexible and efficient, for instance to develop global registers and identifiers and promote data-sharing and the access to new sources of information. Achieving rapid progress on these various fronts is a key priority.
Lastly, while central banks’ statisticians have proved responsive and innovative in the face of recent crises, further consolidating their contribution to NSS, their continued and close cooperation with other relevant stakeholders will remain essential to address the current complex challenges and further strengthen the role of official statistics in modern societies.