The commodity cycle: macroeconomic and financial stability implications

Closing conference of the BIS CCA Research Network, hosted by the BIS Representative Office for the Americas, Mexico City, 18-19 August 2016

Thursday 18 August 2016


Opening remarks
Enrique Alberola (Chief Representative, BIS Representative Office for the Americas)


Session I
Chair: Enrique Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania)


The correlation of oil and equity prices: the role of the zero lower bound, by Deepa Datta, Benjamin Johannsen, Hannah Kwon and Robert Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board of Governors) (paper) (presentation)
Discussant: Jing Cynthia Wu (University of Chicago) (presentation)


The predictive ability of commodity currencies volatility risk premium (paper) (presentation), by Jose Renato Haas Ornelas and Roberto Baltieri Mauad (Central Bank of Brazil)
Discussant: Torben Andersen (Northwestern University) (presentation)


Session II
Chair: Marco Lombardi (Bank for International Settlements)


Business cycles in an oil economy by Drago Bergholt and Vegard Larsen (Bank of Norway) (paper) (presentation)
Discussant: Martin Uribe (Columbia University) (presentation)


Commodity price beliefs, financial frictions and business cycles (paper) (presentation), by Jesus Bejarano, Franz Hamann, Enrique Mendoza and Diego Rodriguez (Bank of the Republic, Colombia)
Discussant: Luis Catao (International Monetary Fund) (presentation)


Session III
Chair: Christian Upper (Bank for International Settlements)


The dynamics of investment projects: evidence from Peru, by Rocio Gondo (Bank for International Settlements) and Marco Vega (Central Reserve Bank of Peru) (paper) (presentation)
Discussant: Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary) (presentation)


Commodity prices, growth and productivity: a sectoral view (paper) (presentation), by Claudia de la Huerta and Javier Garcia-Cicco (Central Bank of Chile)
Discussant: Christiane Baumeister (University of Notre Dame) (presentation)


Keynote address
Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices, by Rick van der Ploeg (Professor of Economics, University of Oxford and Research Director, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies) (paper) (presentation)


Friday 19 August 2016


Session IV
Chair: Ramon Moreno (Bank for International Settlements)


Commodity price super-cycle: what lies ahead?, by Bahattin Buyuksahin (Bank of Canada) (presentation)
Discussant: Yu-chin Chen (University of Washington) (presentation)


On the macroeconomics of commodity exporters: some empirical estimates, by Emanuel Kohlscheen and Ricardo Sousa (Bank for International Settlements) (presentation)
Discussant: Eduardo Borensztein (Borensztein Consulting) (presentation)


Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model, by Bernabe Lopez-Martin, Julio Leal, Andre Martinez Fritzscher (Central Bank of Mexico) (paper) (presentation)
Discussant: Olivier Jeanne (John Hopkins University) (presentation)

12:20-12:50 Conclusions and follow up by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Emanuel Kohlscheen (Bank for International Settlements)