BIS Quarterly Review, September 2018

Sentiment turned sharply in financial markets as 2018 moved into its second half. A renewed US dollar rally and escalating trade tensions resulted in an uneven tightening of global financial conditions. The Federal Reserve continued the gradual and predictable removal of monetary accommodation as the US economy gathered speed again, in part boosted by last year's fiscal stimulus. ...

International (cross-border and foreign currency) credit, a key indicator of global liquidity, has continued to expand in recent years to 38% of global GDP. This growth has been driven by international debt securities issuance, while the role of banks has diminished - both as lenders and as investors in debt securities. The aggregate trend has been more pronounced for advanced economy than emerging market borrowers. ...

Fintech credit has grown rapidly around the world in recent years, but its size still varies greatly across economies. Differences reflect economic development and financial market structure: the higher a country's income and the less competitive its banking system, the larger is fintech credit activity. Fintech credit volumes are also greater in countries with less stringent banking regulation. ...

Cryptocurrencies are often thought to operate out of the reach of national regulation, but in fact their valuations, transaction volumes and user bases react substantially to news about regulatory actions. The impact depends on the specific regulatory category to which the news relates: events related to general bans on cryptocurrencies or to their treatment under securities law have the greatest adverse effect, followed by news on combating money laundering and the financing of terrorism, and on restricting the interoperability of cryptocurrencies with regulated markets. ...

The rising number of so-called zombie firms, defined as firms that are unable to cover debt servicing costs from current profits over an extended period, has attracted increasing attention in both academic and policy circles. Using firm-level data on listed firms in 14 advanced economies, we document a ratcheting-up in the prevalence of zombies since the late 1980s. ...

We review methods and models for estimating term premia on long-term government bonds. We then use these models to estimate term premia on US and euro area bonds and explore their recent behaviour. Although the models produce different estimates for the level of term premia, they largely concur on the trends and dynamics. ...