Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: an early review

Key takeaways

• Past epidemics had long-lasting effects on economies through illness and the loss of lives, while Covid-19 is marked by widespread containment measures and relatively lower fatalities among young people.
• The short-term costs of Covid-19 will probably dwarf those of past epidemics, due to the unprecedented and synchronised global sudden stop in economic activity induced by containment measures.
• The current estimated impact on global GDP growth for 2020 is around -4%, with substantial downside risks if containment policies are prolonged. Output losses are larger for major economies.  

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the BIS.