Vulnerabilities of emerging market economies take centre stage

The September issue of the BIS Quarterly Review highlights the increased focus of investors on vulnerabilities in emerging market economies and the consequences for global markets. Read more


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20 Nov

A search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation

We present a search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation. Banks are subject to reserve requirements and the central bank tenders reserves. Interbank payments redistribute holdings and ...

19 Nov

External shocks, banks and optimal monetary policy in an open economy

We document empirically that the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis exposed emerging market economies (EMEs) to an adverse feedback loop of capital outflows, depreciating exchange rates, deteriorating balance sheets, rising credit spreads and falling real economic ...

16 Nov

What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks? (BIS Paper)

Financial intermediation in emerging market economies (EMEs) has been transformed over the past decade: a higher volume of bond financing has gone hand-in-hand with a growing internationalization of financial markets and significant changes to the ...

13 Nov

Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve

We investigate the movements of the yield curve after the release of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements through the lenses of an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals. Combining estimated yield responses obtained using ...

10 Nov

Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads

Using a Markov-switching VAR with endogenous transition probabilities, we analyse what has triggered the interest rate pass-through impairment for Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. We find that global risk factors have contributed to higher lending ...

20 Oct

Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously

This paper questions the appropriateness of popular analytical frameworks that focus on current accounts or net capital flows as a basis for assessing the pattern of cross-border capital flows, the degree of financial integration and the vulnerability of ...

20 Oct

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

The traditional approach to international finance is to view capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment decisions, assuming further that the GDP boundary defines both the decision-making unit and the currency area. This "triple coincidence" of ...

16 Oct

The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the ...

Central bankers' speeches
30 Nov
27 Nov
26 Nov
BIS Management speeches
30 Nov

by Jaime Caruana: Revisiting monetary policy frameworks in the light of macroprudential policy

The often proposed separation principle - whereby monetary policy is assigned to price stability and macroprudential policy is assigned to financial stability - has an intuitive appeal, but is unconvincing as a general proposition...

24 Nov

by Claudio Borio: Macroprudential policies: What have we learnt?

Post-crisis, macroprudential frameworks have rightly become an essential pillar of financial stability policies. This presentation addresses the implications of the financial cycle for their design...

13 Nov

by Hyun Song Shin: External dimension of monetary policy

International spillovers and spillbacks are not a recent phenomenon. They result from past monetary policy actions. Due to the "triple coincidence" accounting convention - whereby the GDP area...

12 Nov

by Claudio Borio: Revisiting three intellectual pillars of monetary policy received wisdom

The speech questions three deeply held beliefs that underpin current monetary policy received wisdom: it is appropriate to define equilibrium (or natural) rates...