Bank for International Settlements

BIS

Quarterly Review

December 2015

Uneasy calm awaiting lift-off

The December issue of the BIS Quarterly Review explores how global financial markets have responded in recent months to the prospect that monetary policy paths will diverge across the major advanced economies. Read more

Special features

Media briefing

"Calm has reigned over financial markets, but it has been an uneasy calm."

Remarks on the latest BIS Quarterly Review by Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, and Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research

What's new

At a glance

10 Dec	Exchange rates and the transmission of global liquidity (speech by Hyun Song Shin)
10 Dec	Revisions to the Standardised Approach for credit risk - second consultative document (BCBS)
06 Dec	BIS Quarterly Review, December 2015
04 Dec	Alexandre Lamfalussy Senior Research Fellowship

03 Dec	The supply side of household finance (Working Paper)
01 Dec	Assessing household financial positions in Asia (IFC Bulletin)
01 Dec	International Journal of Central Banking (IJCB), December 2015 issue
30 Nov	Commercial bank failures during The Great Recession: the real (estate) story (Working Paper)

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Research

03 Dec	The supply side of household finance We propose a new, data-based test for the presence of biased financial advice when households choose between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages. If households are wary, the relative cost of the two types should be a ...
01 Dec	International Journal of Central Banking (IJCB), December 2015 issue
30 Nov	Commercial bank failures during The Great Recession: the real (estate) story The primary driver of commercial bank failures during the Great Recession was exposure to the real estate sector, not aggregate funding strains. The main "toxic" exposure was credit to non-household real estate borrowers, not traditional home ...
20 Nov	A search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation We present a search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation. Banks are subject to reserve requirements and the central bank tenders reserves. Interbank payments redistribute holdings and ...
19 Nov	External shocks, banks and optimal monetary policy in an open economy We document empirically that the 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis exposed emerging market economies (EMEs) to an adverse feedback loop of capital outflows, depreciating exchange rates, deteriorating balance sheets, rising credit spreads and falling real economic ...

16 Nov	What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks? (BIS Paper) Financial intermediation in emerging market economies (EMEs) has been transformed over the past decade: a higher volume of bond financing has gone hand-in-hand with a growing internationalization of financial markets and significant changes to the ...
13 Nov	Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve We investigate the movements of the yield curve after the release of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements through the lenses of an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals. Combining estimated yield responses obtained using ...
10 Nov	Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads Using a Markov-switching VAR with endogenous transition probabilities, we analyse what has triggered the interest rate pass-through impairment for Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. We find that global risk factors have contributed to higher lending ...
20 Oct	Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously This paper questions the appropriateness of popular analytical frameworks that focus on current accounts or net capital flows as a basis for assessing the pattern of cross-border capital flows, the degree of financial integration and the vulnerability of ...
20 Oct	Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance The traditional approach to international finance is to view capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment decisions, assuming further that the GDP boundary defines both the decision-making unit and the currency area. This "triple coincidence" of ...

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Speeches

Central bankers' speeches
11 Dec	Luis M Linde: New challenges for a new era Luis M Linde: The Spanish economy - situation and outlook Stephen S Poloz: Prudent preparation - the evolution of unconventional monetary policies Jens Weidmann: A central banker's take on improving the euro area's stability Guy Debelle: The global code of conduct for the foreign exchange market
10 Dec	Haruhiko Kuroda: The current situation in Japan's financial system and macroprudential policy Marius Jurgilas: Who are non-banks and why are they important for us?
09 Dec	Fernando Restoy: Bank credit developments in Spain Andreas Dombret: The euro area - where do we stand? Zeti Akhtar Aziz: Central banking - using leadership energy to build resilience

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BIS Management speeches
10 Dec	by Hyun Song Shin: Exchange rates and the transmission of global liquidity What is the economic impact of currency depreciation? Is it expansionary or contractionary? Traditional arguments in the spirit of the Mundell-Fleming model suggest that it is expansionary as it boosts net exports and output...
30 Nov	by Jaime Caruana: Revisiting monetary policy frameworks in the light of macroprudential policy The often proposed separation principle - whereby monetary policy is assigned to price stability and macroprudential policy is assigned to financial stability - has an intuitive appeal, but is unconvincing as a general proposition...
24 Nov	by Claudio Borio: Macroprudential policies: What have we learnt? Post-crisis, macroprudential frameworks have rightly become an essential pillar of financial stability policies. This presentation addresses the implications of the financial cycle for their design...
13 Nov	by Hyun Song Shin: External dimension of monetary policy International spillovers and spillbacks are not a recent phenomenon. They result from past monetary policy actions. Due to the "triple coincidence" accounting convention - whereby the GDP area...

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Statistics

06 Dec	BIS Statistical Bulletin, December 2015
20 Nov	Residential property price statistics
17 Nov	Effective exchange rate indices
05 Nov	OTC derivatives statistics at end-June 2015
23 Oct	Residential property price statistics - detailed

21 Oct	International banking statistics at end-June 2015
30 Sep	Statistics on payment, clearing and settlement systems in the CPMI countries - Figures for 2014 - preliminary release
29 Sep	Reporting guidelines for the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey
18 Sep	Detailed data set on nominal residential property prices

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Basel Committee

10 Dec	Revisions to the Standardised Approach for credit risk - second consultative document
24 Nov	Making supervisory stress tests more macroprudential: Considering liquidity and solvency interactions and systemic risk (Working Paper)
18 Nov	Fundamental review of the trading book - interim impact analysis
13 Nov	Finalising post-crisis reforms: an update - A report to G20 Leaders

13 Nov	Implementation of Basel standards - A report to G20 Leaders on implementation of the Basel III regulatory reforms
10 Nov	Capital treatment for "simple, transparent and comparable" securitisations - consultative document
09 Nov	Reports related to Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) (press release)
05 Nov	Haircut floors for non-centrally cleared securities financing transactions - consultative document

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