BIS residential property price statistics, Q1 2023
Statistical release: BIS residential property price statistics in Q1 2023
-->- In the first quarter of 2023, global house prices fell in real terms by 3.3% year on year (yoy) in aggregate, their sharpest decline since the 2007–09 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This reflected a further slowdown in nominal house prices, which are now growing less rapidly than consumer prices.
- The fall in real house prices was particularly pronounced in advanced economies (AEs) (–5.0% yoy). Prices fell more moderately in emerging market economies (EMEs) (–1.9%).
- Important differences remain across major economies. For instance, real house prices surged in Türkiye but were flat in Japan and declined sharply in Australia and Germany and even more so in Canada.
- In real terms, global house prices remain a solid 24% above the average posted after the GFC (compared with 33% in AEs and 17% in EMEs).
Summary of latest developments
In the first quarter of 2023, global real house prices declined by 3.3% yoy, the steepest fall observed since 2009.1 This development reflected a pronounced slowdown in nominal prices (+3.2%) combined with moderating but still strong consumer inflation.2
Real house prices extended their decline in AEs, by 5.0%, compared with the previous quarter's fall of 2.6% yoy. In EMEs, prices fell more moderately, by 1.9% after a 1.3% decline in Q4 2022 (Graph 1), driven by decreases in Asia and Latin America (–3.7% and –2.1%, respectively).
Country-level data show that the decline in real house prices has been spreading across jurisdictions, affecting 80% of AEs and 70% of EMEs. Moreover, about half of the countries are now registering price declines of more than 5% (Graph 2).3
Despite their recent fall, global real residential prices remain well above their pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels (by 6% in aggregate). Compared with Q4 2019, they have increased by 140% in Türkiye, close to 20% in the United States, and by around 15% in Japan. In contrast, real prices have fallen by 8% in India, and by 6% in Brazil, Italy and South Africa since the end of 2019 (Graph 3).
From a longer-term perspective, global house prices now exceed (in real terms) their immediate post-GFC average by 24% (33% for AEs and 17% for EMEs) (Table 1). Among the G20 economies, real prices have more than doubled since 2010 in Türkiye (+149%) and they have risen by around 60% in Canada, India and the United States. At the other end of the scale, they remain well below their post-GFC levels in Italy, by 29%.
Advanced economies
In aggregate for the group of AEs, real residential property prices declined by 5.0% yoy in Q1 2023, marking a significant correction after the 2.6% fall registered just the quarter before (Q4 2022). Among the major economies, real prices were stable only in Japan (+1%). They fell by 3% in the United States and by 5% in the United Kingdom. Double-digit declines were recorded in Australia (–14%) and Canada (–19%) (Graph 4).
Real house prices fell further in the euro area (–7%), where developments continued to vary significantly among member states. Prices were broadly stable in Portugal (+1%) and Spain (–1%). They declined by 3% in France, 6% in the Netherlands, 7% in Italy and, notably, by 14% in Germany (Graph 5).
Emerging market economies
Real residential property prices continued to fall in EMEs during the first quarter of 2023, by 1.9% yoy (versus –1.3% in Q4 2022).
Prices declined in the Asian economies, by 3.7% in aggregate. They were broadly stable in Thailand (+1%) but fell by 2% in India, 3% in Indonesia, 5% in China and, notably, by 9% in Korea (Graph 6).
Real prices were also down in Latin America (–2.1% in aggregate), driven mainly by the decline in Brazil (–5%) and despite the increase in Mexico (+4%). Among central and eastern European countries, real prices grew by +6.6% in aggregate), driven by the surge (of 51%) recorded in Türkiye. Lastly, prices fell by 4% in South Africa (Graph 7).
1 Real residential property prices refer to nominal residential property price indicators deflated by the consumer price index. Global figures are weighted aggregates of selected AEs (Australia, Canada, Denmark, the euro area, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States) and EMEs (Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Czechia, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, North Macedonia, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates), based on PPP exchange rates. Regional aggregates have been available since 2007.
2 The year-on-year growth in CPI moderated in 70% of the economies covered in the BIS data set between the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Residential property price developments in nominal terms are shown in the annex.
3 As regional aggregate developments are driven mainly by changes in major economies, they can mask detailed country-level features presented in the histogram.