BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2022

24 November 2022
PDF full text
 |  8 pages

Key takeaways

  • Growth in global real house prices slowed to 2.2% year on year in aggregate in the second quarter of 2022.1 This reflected a strong increase in nominal terms (+10.6%) – largely offset by the surge in year-on-year consumer price growth rates.2
  • Real house price developments continued to diverge across the main regions. They continued to increase rapidly in advanced economies (AEs, +5.3% year on year) while emerging market economies (EMEs) saw their first decline (–0.2%) since early 2016.
  • Real house prices surged in Turkey (50%), the United States (9%), Australia, Canada (both 8%) and Japan (7%). They fell by 6% in Brazil and 4% in China and India.
  • In real terms, global house prices now exceed their immediate post-GFC average levels by 27% (40% in the AEs and 18% in the EMEs).

Summary of latest developments

In the second quarter of 2022, global real house prices growth moderated to 2.2% year on year in aggregate. This reflected a strong increase in nominal terms (+10.6%), offset by the rapid acceleration in year-on-year consumer price growth rates (CPIs).

Real house price growth lost some momentum in advanced economies (AEs), at +5.3% (down from 7.9% in Q1 2022) and turned negative in EMEs, at -0.2%, after a 1.7% increase in the previous quarter (Graph 1). The slight fall recorded by EMEs was driven mainly by the Latin American and Asian regions (–3.8% and –3.3% respectively), while real prices surged in central and eastern Europe (+18%).

Country-level data3 show that strong housing inflation was well distributed among AEs, where real residential property prices increased year on year in 75% of the jurisdictions in the second quarter of 2022 – with increases above 5% year on year recorded in one third of the cases. In contrast, house prices fell in 60% of the EMEs, up from less than 50% in Q1 2022 (Graph 2).

Despite the recent global slowdown, there has been a significant rise in global real residential prices since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Compared with Q4 2019, they have increased by 9% globally, and in particular by 85% in Turkey and 23% in Australia, Canada, and the United States. In contrast, real prices have fallen by 8% in India since the end of 2019 (Graph 3).

From a longer-term perspective, global house prices now exceed (in real terms) their immediate post-GFC average by 27% (and by 40% and 18% for AEs and EMEs, respectively (Table 1). Among the G20 economies, real prices have almost doubled since 2010 in Turkey and Canada (+90% in both economies) and they have risen by around 60% in the Germany, India and the United States. At the other end of the scale, they remain well below their post-GFC levels in Italy, by 24%.

Advanced economies

In aggregate for the group of AEs, real residential property prices grew by 5.3% in Q2 2022, down from 7.9% in Q1 2022. They rose vigorously in several jurisdictions, by 9% in the United States, 8% in Australia and Canada, and 7% in Japan. Growth was more moderate in the United Kingdom (+2%) and a 2% decline was recorded in New Zealand (Graph 4).

Prices were up by 1% in the euro area, where developments continued to vary significantly among member states. Strong real house price growth persisted in the Netherlands (+8%) and Portugal (+5%). Prices kept growing somewhat in Germany (+2%) and France (+1%), but fell in Spain (–1%) and Italy (–2%) (Graph 5).

Emerging market economies

In contrast to AEs, real residential property prices fell moderately in EMEs during the second quarter of 2022, by 0.2% year on year compared with growth of 1.7% in Q1 2022.

Among the Asian economies (–3.3% in aggregate), they were up in Korea (+4%), but fell in Thailand (–1%), Indonesia (–2%), India and China (both –4%) (Graph 6).

In Latin America (–3.8% in aggregate), prices remained flat in Mexico and declined in Brazil (–6%). Among the central and eastern European countries (+17.6% in aggregate), real property prices surged by 50% in Turkey and 6% in Czechia. Lastly, prices fell by 3% in South Africa (Graph 7).

Annex: Nominal house price developments

Real residential property prices refer to nominal residential property price indicators deflated by the consumer price index. Global figures are weighted aggregates of selected AEs (Australia, Canada, Denmark, the euro area, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States) and EMEs (Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czechia, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, North Macedonia, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates), based on PPP exchange rates. Regional aggregates have been available since 2007.

The year-on-year change in consumer price index was higher in Q2 2022 than in Q1 2022 in all but one of the economies covered in the BIS data set. Residential property price developments in nominal terms are shown in the Annex.

As regional aggregate developments are driven mainly by property price changes in major economies, they can mask detailed country-level features presented in the histogram.

Related information