Turbulence and resilience: lessons from an eventful year

Keynote address by Alexandre Tombini, Chief Representative, Representative Office for the Americas, Bank for International Settlements, at the Central Banking Autumn Meetings, Rio de Janeiro, 19 November 2025.

The year 2025 has been characterised by heightened policy uncertainty, trade disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, the global economy displayed remarkable resilience, supported by robust GDP growth and sustained investment, including in emerging market economies (EMEs). Inflation remained broadly stable, driven by persistent service price pressures, while EMEs demonstrated their capacity to withstand external shocks, underpinned by strengthened policy frameworks. Despite elevated uncertainty, largely stemming from trade policy developments, consumption and investment have proven more resilient than anticipated. Financial markets experienced a temporary bout of volatility, with the unusual combination of a weakening US dollar and rising US Treasury yields during a risk-off episode. This atypical market behaviour prompted some observers to question the prospective safe haven role of US assets.

The developments of 2025 highlight the intricate and varied effects of trade policy shifts, the evolving nature of uncertainty, and the critical role of sound policy frameworks in mitigating economic shocks. These experiences underscore the importance, not least for EMEs, of sustained efforts to enhance resilience and maintain macroeconomic stability in the face of an increasingly complex and dynamic global environment.