Jorgovanka Tabaković: Overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in Serbia

Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed members of the press, dear colleagues,

Welcome to the presentation of our latest Inflation Report, during which we will present our estimates of the current macroeconomic developments, expectations for the period ahead, and an explanation of monetary policy decisions taken since the previous Report.

The global economy has been operating for an extended period under conditions of exceptionally heightened uncertainty, with no signs of a more durable easing. Shocks have been unfolding one after another – just as it appears that a degree of stabilisation may be emerging, new and unpredictable disruptions arise, once again altering the economic outlook. The latest escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is precisely such an event, having triggered a strong energy shock and once again raised questions regarding supply security and movement in global energy prices.

The change in the outlook for economic developments is already evident in the projections of relevant international institutions and central banks – projected inflation is being revised up, while projected economic growth is being revised down due to higher energy prices and a decline in real incomes. At the same time, given that risks are pronounced and asymmetric, and that traditional assumptions about future developments are becoming increasingly uncertain, alternative scenarios are being developed. These take into account the possibility of further escalation of geopolitical tensions and more persistent inflationary pressures, in order to capture a broader range of possible outcomes.