Joachim Nagel: Already here, not yet everywhere - shaping the economic impact of artificial intelligence
Keynote speech by Dr Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the International Economic Symposium, Rome, 21 April 2026.
Check against delivery
1 Introduction
Ladies and gentlemen,
The science fiction writer William Gibson once said: The future is already here – it is just not very evenly distributed
. That remark quite aptly describes the current state of artificial intelligence. Its capabilities are already visible across many applications – from text generation and coding to research and forecasting. Or, in a more personal context, from designing invitation cards to making songs or even movies. Yet its broader economic impact is still far less apparent from the aggregate statistics.
This is not without historical precedent. When electricity first spread throughout the advanced economies, the productivity gains were limited, to begin with. Firms adopted electric motors, but they did not reorganise their production straight away. However, artificial intelligence could be spreading significantly more quickly than earlier general-purpose technologies. This suggests that artificial intelligence is a transformation that will almost certainly have a massive impact on the global economy.
In my speech today, I will explore what AI may imply for growth, inflation and financial stability. Another key question I will address is this: How do we shape its impact? In this context, I would like to touch upon how well Europe is positioned in the global AI race. But before I do that, allow me to outline how I see AI and where I see its strengths and weaknesses.