François Villeroy de Galhau: One year on - why the transatlantic partnership remains of mutual interest

I am honoured to take the floor again at the Atlantic Council, one year after my first speech here. Back in April 2025, we already found ourselves in an exceptionally uncertain environment. One year on, two observations stand out for me. First, the economy has held up better than expected, including in Europe (I). Second, despite the tensions, we need each other, and we need predictability (II).

I. One year on: resilience amid uncertainty

1. The economy and trade have held up better than expected

Despite rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions, the world economy proved more resilient than feared one year ago: global growth reached 3.4%, compared to a 2.8% forecast in April 2025. The euro area experienced a positive growth of 1.5%, with an inflation of 2.1% in 2025, which constitutes a "good starting position" for 2026. On this side of the Atlantic, the sharp slowdown in US growth we feared a year ago – some analysts were even hinting at a recession – has fortunately not materialised. Why so? US growth has been driven by the AI investment boom – notably in data centres and technology equipment – but also by a sizeable wealth effect from dynamic equity markets (+16% on the S&P500 over the year) and still supportive fiscal policy. This has supported consumption, but unevenly: the top 20% richest households in terms of income make close to  60% of aggregated consumption.