Sergio Nicoletti Altimari: Global imbalances and their risks in a more fragmented world economy
Speech by Mr Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the 32nd Congress of ASSIOM FOREX, Venice, 20 February 2026.
If we were to judge the state of the world economy solely on the basis of the results recorded in 2025, there would appear to be few problems on the surface. Geopolitical upheavals and trade tensions between countries seem to have only had a marginal impact.
According to the latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth remained above 3 per cent last year and is expected to stay at similar levels in 2026. World trade has shown remarkable resilience despite the introduction of US tariffs. Inflation has continued to fall, moving closer to central banks' targets. Financial markets, while experiencing bouts of volatility, have recorded double digit equity gains in the major trading centres.
There are undeniably positive aspects, some of which are likely to persist. The artificial intelligence revolution is spurring investment and international trade: roughly half of last year's increase in global trade involved AI-related products, a technology that also promises to significantly boost productivity. Firms have been shown to be highly adaptable in rapidly re-routing trade flows and mitigating the impact of tariffs. Monetary easing, made possible by the decline in inflation, is helping to finance the economy.
Yet beneath the surface of these favourable results, imbalances are building up that could prove destabilizing if not addressed in time. These are not new phenomena, but rather long standing issues that have afflicted many economies in the past. In this speech, I will focus on several aspects that are particularly important for monetary policy and for financial stability: the rise in global public debt, trade imbalances between countries, and vulnerabilities in specific segments of financial markets that may amplify risks.