Olaf Sleijpen: Economic resilience in an uncertain world - implications for Europe and the Netherlands
Speech by Mr Olaf Sleijpen, President of De Nederlandsche Bank, at the annual EB NEXT! event, organised by the University of Amsterdam's Economics and Business department, Amsterdam, 17 February 2026.
The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.
Thank you for the invitation. I'd like to talk about how the global economy is handling this period of exceptional uncertainty, and what it means for Europe and the Netherlands. And please note this is an economic analysis, not a forecast or political statement. Let's start with an observation that might seem surprising...
We are currently experiencing a period of exceptional geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Consider this graph – it shows an uncertainty index. And as you can see, the spikes in uncertainty – such as the war in Ukraine and the second Trump administration – consist of a mix of different factors, such as geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty. If you focus solely on the headlines, you would expect a much weaker economy.
However, if you look only at macroeconomic data or the stock markets, the outlook seems stable.
So, the key question isn't the presence of risks, but understanding why these have not yet fully materialised. So how can these two views be reconciled? Economic theory can help us find an answer to this question.