Jorgovanka Tabaković: Overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in Serbia

Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed members of the press, dear colleagues,

Welcome to the presentation of the February Inflation Report where we will give you a summary of our views of the current macroeconomic movements, developments in the period ahead, and an explanation of monetary policy decisions since the previous Report.

Almost everyone present here follows economic developments not only in our country but also globally, and we are well aware of how challenging the conditions are in which the NBS conducts monetary policy. Although the situation regarding the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) is much more favourable than when we last met in November, uncertainty remains pronounced on several fronts. First and foremost, geopolitical and trade tensions between the United States and China remain elevated, as do tensions in relations between the United States and the European Union. Moreover, the conflict in Ukraine continues, while tensions in the Middle East have intensified. All of this is reflected in heightened volatility in commodity and financial markets, particularly in the price of gold, which has recorded significant upward and downward fluctuations within the space of just a few days. Unfortunately, as most analysts and central bankers conclude – a view we share at the NBS – geopolitical conflicts and trade disputes are likely to persist in the period ahead and, given their prolonged nature, may even be said to have become a kind of "new normal".