Fabio Panetta: Trade and finance in a fragmented world
Speech by Mr Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the 32nd ASSIOM FOREX Congress, Venice, 21 February 2026.
The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.
1. The international economy
In 2025, global growth turned out to be stronger than expected despite heightened geopolitical and trade tensions. World GDP grew by 3.3 per cent, half a point higher than forecast a year ago.
Output growth reflected primarily the artificial intelligence (AI) boom - particularly the construction of data centres, which are now at the heart of the ongoing technological transformation.
The United States are especially benefiting from this, recording an average GDP growth rate of 3.2 per cent since last spring, based on the data released yesterday. The expansion of the US economy is also supported by buoyant household consumption, in turn stimulated by stock price gains.
Quite surprisingly, global activity has also been boosted by a rapid and persistent pickup in international trade.
In China, the ability of exporting firms to redirect excess output to other markets, in response to US trade barriers, has made it possible to achieve the government's growth target of 5 per cent. This has been helped by lower export prices and the higher technological content of goods sold abroad. It is a strategy that has proven to be effective in the short term, but is hardly sustainable over time as, absent stronger domestic consumption, it tends to fuel deflationary pressures.