Sergiy Nikolaychuk: A decade of inflation targeting in Ukraine - lessons for a new era of uncertainty
Guest lecture by Mr Sergiy Nikolaychuk, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, at the Kyiv School of Economics, Kyiv, 27 October 2025.
The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.
It is a great honor and pleasure for me to share what we have achieved over the past ten years in the field of monetary policy. When we look back and compare the monetary policy of today with that of a decade ago, the transformation is truly remarkable.
This has been a journey that the NBU has gone through since introducing inflation targeting in 2015 - a reform that fundamentally changed the way monetary policy is conducted in Ukraine.
First, I will outline the context and conditions under which this decision was made. Then, I will explain why the move toward an inflation targeting framework was necessary and describe the main steps we took to build a new monetary policy framework. After that, I will discuss the performance of the NBU in conducting monetary policy and the outcomes of implementing this new regime, both before and after the full-scale war in Ukraine. Finally, I will touch upon the lessons learned and how this experience shapes our approach to monetary policy in a new era of elevated uncertainty.
Introduction: 'A Decade since a Bold Turn'
Ten years ago, the NBU was brave enough to take a decisive step toward a new monetary policy regime.
When this decision was taken in 2015, Ukraine was facing what could fairly be described as a perfect storm - a classic 'triple crisis' combining a banking crisis, a macroeconomic crisis, and a balance-of-payments crisis.