Andrew Hauser: On the rail or off to the races? The outlook for the Australian economy
Speech by Mr Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the UBS Australasia conference, Sydney, 10 November 2025.
The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.
Introduction
It's great to be here with you today, to speak with, and hear from, investors from Australia and around the world.
The timing of this conference is auspicious. That's true from a global perspective, of course, as we navigate an extraordinary inflexion point in world economic affairs. But it's true locally, too, because it's just a week after Australia's most famous horse race – the Melbourne Cup. For decades the RBA has made its November interest rate decision on Melbourne Cup Day. Not to spoil the mood – but simply because, long ago, both the Reserve Bank and the Victoria Racing Club laid claim to the first Tuesday in November – and neither has yielded since.
For a time in the 2000s, the tendency to raise interest rates on the day – and even close to the time – of the race gave newspaper editors a field day: 'rates gallop ahead as Cup Day looms', the 'double gamble', or a cartoon of the entire Reserve Bank Board of many years ago precariously perched on a single horse, one member cracking the whip while another pulls on the economic reins.
Over the longer sweep of history, however, increases have proved few and far between (Graph 1). Melbourne Cup Day has much more often seen rate holds or rate cuts – and some big ones at that (in 1991, 1996 and 2008). The RBA's Monetary Policy Board added another hold to that tally last week.