Jorgovanka Tabaković: Overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in Serbia

Introductory speech by Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor of the National Bank of Serbia, at the presentation of the May Inflation Report, Belgrade, 14 May 2025.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed members of the press, dear colleagues,

Welcome to the presentation of the May Inflation Report!

The period since our previous meeting in February has been marked by rising trade tensions, with the announced introduction of additional tariffs driving uncertainty in the international commodity and financial markets up to unprecedented levels that have not been recorded since the coronavirus pandemic. Such movements also reflected on rising volatility of stock exchange indices and in turn on the investment sentiment and deterioration of global financial conditions. I shall therefore begin my address by referring to international developments, since our macroeconomic developments and projections for the upcoming period are significantly shaped by them.

The global economy has shown significant resilience to a series of negative shocks to which it has been exposed over the past years, with growth preserved at around 3% on average in the period between 2020 and 2024. Until only a few months ago it was believed that growth would pick up to 3.3% this and the following year. However, as of late January, the increasingly frequent announcements of the introduction of additional tariffs by the new US administration and the reciprocal measures by their trade partners resulted in a rise in effective tariffs to levels not recorded over the past one hundred years, creating a strong negative shock to economic growth.