John C Williams: Uncertainty and robust monetary policy

Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Reykjavík Economic Conference, organised by the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland, Reykjavík, 9 May 2025.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Central bank speech  | 
28 May 2025

As prepared for delivery 

Introduction

Good afternoon. I've been waiting for the right opportunity to visit Iceland, and this conference is a wonderful reason to be here. I would like to thank Governor Jónsson for the invitation.

We are experiencing a moment of great uncertainty and change. I'd like to take this time to step back and revisit the lessons of the past several decades of monetary policy under uncertainty, a topic I have devoted most of my career to as a researcher and policymaker. In particular, I'll discuss the key characteristics of monetary policy approaches that are robust to uncertainty.

Before diving deeper into this topic, I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System.

Uncertainty Is Pervasive and Multifaceted

After 30 years in central banking, I can unequivocally say: "Uncertainty is the only certainty in monetary policy." Or, in the words of Alan Greenspan, former Chair of the Federal Reserve: "Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape."