Sarah Hunter: Monetary policy - forward looking and data dependent in the face of uncertainty

Speech by Ms Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Australian Financial Review Banking Summit, Sydney, 18 March 2025.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

I would first like to pay respect to the traditional and original owners of this land, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, to pay respect to those who have passed before us and to acknowledge today's custodians of this land. I also extend that respect to any First Nations people joining us here today.

Introduction

Three weeks ago, the Reserve Bank Board cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Naturally there is a lot of interest in what lies behind the Board's decision-making process. Today I want to shine a light on three key inputs to the process, how they interact with one another and how they fit together to support the Board in its decision making.

The first is our view of how changes in the cash rate affect the economy. The impact of policy changes takes time to flow through the economy; looking at the response of banking credit flows to interest rate changes, which many here today know intimately, clearly highlights this. So policy decisions today shape inflation and employment outcomes in the future.

This necessitates a forward-looking approach to meeting our mandate. Policy decisions require both a view of the outlook for the economy and an understanding of how policy is likely to affect that outlook. That helps the Board set the cash rate to give the best chance of achieving the RBA's objectives over time.