Paolo Angelini: Data science in central banking

Closing remarks by Mr Paolo Angelini, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Italy, at the 4th Irving Fisher Committee and Bank of Italy Workshop, Rome, 20 February 2025.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen,

I am happy to be here with you today as we mark the conclusion of this workshop on data science in central banking. As highlighted in the Irving Fisher Committee Annual Report for 2024, launching this periodic workshop series jointly with the Bank of Italy, back in 2019, was a far-sighted strategic decision.

The focus of this fourth edition of the workshop, Generative Artificial intelligence (AI) and its applications in central banking, aptly underlines the ongoing transformation in the field.

There is broad consensus that Generative AI has the potential to significantly boost productivity worldwide. According to some estimates, it could yield annual productivity gains in the $2.6 - 4.4 trillion range globally. Others predict an increase in output of the order of 15-20 percent, largely phased in over 15 years after adoption.4 Survey evidence collected from global corporations suggests that for over 40 percent of respondents the return on investment in the most advanced Generative AI initiatives falls within the range of 11-30 percent, and meets expectations (Fig. 1).

The uncertainty surrounding any estimate remains significant, largely due to the rapidly evolving nature of the phenomenon itself. Consider for instance the launch of the ChatGPT-like AI model "R1" by DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, at the end of January. The event cast doubt on the widespread belief that AI requires massive amounts of hardware and energy, raising questions about the leadership of the American tech industry and causing strong stock markets fluctuations.