Luis de Guindos: Expectations surveys, central banks and the economy
Welcome address by Mr Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, at the 5th joint European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on expectations surveys, central banks and the economy, Frankfurt am Main, 1 October 2024.
The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.
It is my pleasure to welcome you to this fifth joint conference on expectations surveys organised by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
In my remarks today, I will delve into the fascinating world of expectations surveys and their relevance to central banks. I will review how useful expectations surveys have proven to be for central banks over the period since 2019, the year we held our first conference in this series. In addition, I will touch on the challenges facing central banks in using surveys. The fact that central banks generally operate under great uncertainty has come to the fore over the past five years. Today, too, we are facing huge uncertainty – not least in view of the many prevailing economic, financial and geopolitical risks. Yet, it is precisely in this unpredictable and highly complex landscape that surveys have come into their own.
The return of survey expectations
Over the past decade, central banks and other policymaking institutions have invested significantly in expectations surveys and have drawn increasingly on survey data for their policy analysis and research. These surveys cover consumers, firms, financial market participants and other experts, including professional forecasters. At the ECB, we can fortunately look to a wide array of such surveys covering diverse topics such as consumer expectations, household finance and consumption, access to finance of enterprises, the payment attitudes of consumers and bank lending. Since 2013, the ECB has also conducted a survey of wholesale market participants on credit terms and conditions, and it recently developed a new survey of monetary analysts to collect expert expectations about key monetary policy parameters and concepts. Finally, the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters was launched back in 1999 at the start of Economic and Monetary Union. Its structured collection of data has supported a rich research programme investigating economic forecasts and expert expectations.