Aleš Michl: Inflation expectations of households

Notes by Mr Aleš Michl, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the General Council Meeting, Frankfurt am Main, 26 September 2024.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Good morning, President Lagarde, dear colleagues.

Let me give you an insight into how we (at the CNB) approach the inflation expectations of households.

Methodology

We have data on the short-term (12-month) inflation expectations of households from monthly business and consumer surveys. The surveys have been conducted for the Czech Statistical Office and the European Commission by Data Collect, a market research company. The survey is conducted via telephone interviews, using a sample of 1,000 randomly selected households.

Since August 2015, we have numerical estimates of:

1. Expected inflation: respondents are asked, "How do you think consumer prices will develop in the next 12 months compared to the previous 12 months?"

2. Perceived inflation: respondents are asked, "How much do you think consumer prices have changed over the past 12 months? Please estimate in per cent."