Adriana D Kugler: How we got here - a perspective on inflation and the labor market

Thank you, John, and thank you for the opportunity to speak here today. It is good to be back at the Kennedy School and in particular at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center, which has a long tradition of engaging on important policy issues.

In my remarks today, I will provide my outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy. The combination of significant ongoing progress in reducing inflation and a cooling in the labor market means that the time has come to begin easing monetary policy, and I strongly supported the decision last week by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. While future actions by the FOMC will depend on data we receive on inflation, employment, and economic activity, if conditions continue to evolve in the direction traveled thus far, then additional cuts will be appropriate.

I will begin by summarizing where we stand on inflation, including details on how the different components of inflation have changed over time, since these facts form the basis for my judgment on where inflation is headed. I will then talk about the recent cooling in the labor market and the forces driving it as well as how shifts on this other side of our mandate fit into the overall economic outlook for the rest of this year. I will conclude with the implications of all this for appropriate monetary policy and our focus on our dual mandate.

Inflation based on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) has come down from a peak of 7.1 percent on a year-on-year basis to 2.5 percent in July. Core PCE inflation, which excludes energy and food prices and tends to be less volatile, has come down from a peak of 5.6 percent to now 2.6 percent. Based on consumer and producer price indexes, I estimate headline PCE and core PCE inflation to be at about 2.2 and 2.7 percent, respectively, in August, consistent with ongoing progress toward the FOMC's 2 percent target. The progress on inflation is good news, but it is important to remember that households and businesses are still dealing with prices for many goods and services that are significantly higher than a couple of years ago. Prices for groceries, for example, are about 20 percent higher than before inflation started rising in 2021, and while earnings have been rising faster than inflation, it may take some time for it to feel as though prices are back to normal.