Jorgovanka Tabaković: Overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in Serbia

Introductory speech by Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor of the National Bank of Serbia, at the presentation of the November Inflation Report, Belgrade, 15 November 2022.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed members of the press, dear colleagues,

Welcome to the presentation of the November Inflation Report.

As is our practice, during our presentation today we shall present our estimates of economic developments in the international environment and at home, as well as our latest macroeconomic projections for Serbia.

At the very start I would like to underline that the main difference between the projections we present today and the projections from August pertains to the materialisation of risks to which we pointed at the time, though hoping that it would not occur.

The first risk that has materialised relates to developments in the international environment. Geopolitical tensions have deepened further, the gas supply from Russia to Europe has contracted by as much as 80% compared to the previous year, global inflation continued on the upward path, and the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness of many central banks has increased significantly. All of this has resulted in a less favourable global growth outlook and – most importantly for us – it has reflected on growth in the euro area, our key economic partner.