Timothy Lane: Expecting the unexpected - central bank decision making in turbulent times

Speech (delivered virtually) by Mr Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, to the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, Calgary, Alberta, 16 February 2022.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Introduction

Good morning. I'm happy to be here with you today, albeit virtually.

For two years now, we have been living through a period of history like no other. Successive waves of COVID-19 have claimed the lives and livelihoods of many Canadians. The economic impacts have also been extraordinary.

The Canadian economy has now recovered substantially. Economic activity is above its pre-pandemic level and employment is near its maximum sustainable level. But the economy is still not back to normal.

This has been a time of tremendous uncertainty for both economic policy-makers and those in the fields of health and science. So it seems fitting to begin our discussion with a thought from renowned Canadian physician William Osler, who is often described as the father of modern medicine. Over a century ago, Dr. Osler transformed the way medicine was taught by combining classroom study with bedside experience.