Edward Robinson: Inflation and expectations

Opening remarks by Mr Edward Robinson, Deputy Managing Director (Economic Policy) and Chief Economist of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the seminar on "Inflation and Cost of Living in Singapore and Asia", 29 April 2021.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Introduction

1.      Thank you for inviting the MAS to join this virtual webinar and live discussion on "Inflation and Cost of Living", a joint initiative of the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, the IMF Institute and DBS Bank. It is encouraging that academia, industry and an intergovernmental organisation have come together on an important issue of common concern.  

2.      I recall launching the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations or SInDEx, as it was known then at SMU in January 2012, and it is heartening to see it nurtured over the past decade. The MAS is grateful to the SKBI for its commitment to this project and to DBS for its generous sponsorship of the DBS-SKBI-SMU Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations, that counts among the key indicators that MAS looks at in its economic surveillance.

3.      My comments are in two parts. First, I will make some broad observations on the somewhat complex inflation dynamics that confront us since the onset of COVID-19. Second, I intend to reiterate the important role that expectations play in driving the behaviour of key macroeconomic phenomena, including inflation. This two-part intervention is meant to bridge the interests and inclinations of the various participants at this Seminar – industry, academia and policy.