David Ramsden: The potential long-term economic effects of Covid

Speech by Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking of the Bank of England, at the Institute for Policy and Engagement at University of Nottingham, Nottingham, 17 November 2020.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

1. Introduction

It's a pleasure to be back speaking at the University of Nottingham again, and I'm very grateful to my old friend and former colleague Stephen Meek, director of the Institute for Policy and Engagement at the university, for the invitation to speak this evening.

There are many links between the University of Nottingham and the Bank of England. Indeed my last physical visit to the University was three years ago to address an event organised by our Agent for the East Midlands for the then newly-launched Decision Maker Panel, a collaboration between the Bank, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University. We have combined today's lecture with virtual visits to speak with local businesses and contacts of Agent, visits which really help me to build a detailed and granular picture of what's really going on in the economy. And after starting today speaking to pupils at Welland Park Academy in Market Harborough it's appropriate to end it speaking to an audience including students.

I want to start by looking back to another speech that I gave last spring, on another regional visit, this time to Scotland. That speech was titled "Resilience: three lessons from the financial crisis", and in it I argued that the financial crisis had indeed taught us three lessons: first, that the past is not always a good guide to the future; second, that there is more to resilience than just being responsive to the narrow economic cycle; and third, that policy needs to prepare for the unexpected.