Ignazio Visco: The Italian economy - the outlook and the need for reform

Speech by Mr Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy, at a National consultation, Rome, 13 June 2020.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

· The spread of the new coronavirus all over the world has led to an extremely serious public health emergency and an economic crisis without parallel in modern history. In order to contain the pandemic, in many countries it has been necessary to introduce measures to curtail people's movements and social interaction, to suspend teaching in schools and universities and to temporarily close down many productive activities. The repercussions on global growth are severe.

· Already in the first half of April, the International Monetary Fund estimated that global GDP would fall by 3 per cent in 2020, compared with an increase of the same amount forecast in January. At the start of this month, the World Bank estimated a decline of 5.2 per cent. Last week the OECD released scenarios indicating a fall of 6.0 per cent in the least unfavourable scenarios and of 7.6 per cent in the event of a second wave of contagion. It has been calculated that this year will see the most widespread fall in per capita income since 1870.