Philip Lowe: The year ahead

Address by Mr Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the National Press Club, Sydney, 5 February 2020.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Thank you for inviting me back to address the National Press Club. It is an honour to be here again. At this lunch a year ago, I spoke about the year ahead. I would like to do the same again today.

Twelve months ago, I reminded you that we do not have a crystal ball that can be used to see the future with certainty. Since then, some things have turned out as expected, but there have been plenty of surprises as well. No doubt, the same will be true this year. Today, though, I would like to talk about the Reserve Bank's central scenario for the global and Australian economies and some of the factors that we will be watching over the year ahead. I would also like to touch on monetary policy.

The Global Economy

The central scenario for the global economy over the next couple of years remains reasonable and growth is expected to be a little stronger than it was in 2019.