Ana Mitreska: Global imbalances, external sector vulnerability and capital flows - selected countries overview

Speaking note by Ms Ana Mitreska, Vice Governor of the National Bank of North Macedonia, for the 42nd Meeting of the Governor's Club of Central Asia, Black Sea and Balkan Countries, Prague, 20-22 November 2019.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Overview of the global external imbalances

The discussion on the issue of global imbalances and the overall profile of the external sector comes at a very proper moment, given the rollback of the globalisation and rising trade tensions. The recent changes might affect the external imbalances globally, if not directly, then indirectly by affecting macroeconomic fundamentals of the economies. Tariffs can define productivity, output, and employment over the longer term, and thus affect the potential to grow. In the last three decades, the decline of tariffs gave ground to global value chains, enhanced competition, and improved productivity across countries.

Global external imbalances have been at the forefront in the macro - discussions and risk assessments. One of the first steps when scrutinizing external positions and imbalances is the current account position.