Javier Guzmán Calafell: Emerging economies in a new global cycle - central bank perspectives

Remarks by Mr Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Mexico, at the 9th Annual Conference "New challenges for global economic integration", organized by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, Cusco, Peru, 24 July 2017.

The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

I thank the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú and the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee for the invitation to participate in this event.

After having reached a post-crisis low in 2016, global economic activity seems to be transitioning to a faster, although still moderate, growth trajectory starting this year. The recovery is supported by the upturn in global merchandise trade, notably in capital goods, and an improved dynamism in the industrial sector, especially in manufacturing. The improved economic situation in the advanced economies is particularly noteworthy. Naturally, this has enhanced confidence in the global economic outlook and reduced the perception of risks deriving from tail scenarios, although these cannot be completely ruled out.

Notwithstanding these positive developments, the world economy seems to have lost part of the long-term dynamism displayed in the past, as global GDP growth during 2017-2022 is forecast to be, on average, almost one percentage point lower than in the pre-crisis years of 2000-2007. Furthermore, the current juncture continues to be characterized by a number of important risks.