A note on the Gordon growth model with nonstationary dividend growth
BIS Working Papers
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No
75
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04 August 1999
Researchers have sometimes argued that the recent ascent in stock prices could
be explained in some measure by changes in expectations about long-run future
dividend growth. For example, Barsky and De Long (1993) argue that a small
random walk component in the growth rate of dividends, when extrapolated into
the future, is capable of reproducing the large swings in US stock prices over
the period 1880-1990. I show that the hypothesis of a nonstationary permanent
growth rate of dividends is inconsistent with the Gordon growth model.