Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: a model comparison
Summary
Focus
We present a novel model comparison to examine the challenges that changes in carbon-intensive energy prices pose for monetary policy. Our study focuses on the macroeconomic effects and monetary policy implications of both temporary and permanent carbon-intensive energy shocks. We use a set of institutional macroeconomic models, each of which is a comprehensive, multi-sector monetary framework.
Contribution
The model comparison includes several large-scale macroeconomic models developed by several central banks and international organisations. These models are the SEEM model by the Central Bank of Chile, the EMuSe model by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the NAWM-E model by the European Central Bank, the C-EAGLE model by the Eurosystem, the E-QUEST model by the European Commission and the BIS-MS model by the Bank for International Settlements. Widely employed for policy analysis, these models incorporate a range of sectoral, nominal and real rigidities to assess the interactions between prices, sectoral dynamics and economic outcomes. A key commonality among them is their detailed representation of sectoral linkages, with particular emphasis on the energy sector.
Findings
Our examination of both temporary and permanent energy price increases uncovers significant insights into their economic impacts. We find that both types of shocks reduce output. The temporary price increase is inflationary, whereas the sign of the inflation response of a permanent price change depends on the underlying model assumptions and on the monetary policy response. Our study also reveals substantial commonalities across the models in terms of both quantitative and qualitative outcomes, while highlighting notable cross-country differences.
Abstract
This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase with a particular focus on the euro area and the United States. Temporary and permanent price shocks are both inflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on the underlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. The analysis also establishes that these models share large commonalities in their quantitative and qualitative results, while also pointing out cross-country differences.
JEL classification: C54, E52, H23, Q43
Keywords: climate change, monetary policy, multi-sector models, model comparison, DSGE models