The energy transition and its macroeconomic effects

BIS Papers  |  No 135  | 
25 May 2023

The energy transition will have profound and varying effects across the globe. We assess how clean technologies are evolving – mainly wind, solar and electric vehicles – and the challenges and opportunities the transition poses for fossil fuel and metals and minerals producers in the short and long term. We describe the likely macroeconomic consequences of the energy transition and identify the countries that are most positively and negatively exposed. A small number of fossil fuel-producing countries are likely to be severely hit. Meanwhile, a concentrated group of minerals producers should experience large net benefits. Fuel importers – that is, most of the world – should benefit to varying degrees.

JEL classification: Q30, Q40, Q50, O30.

Keywords: energy transition, transition risks, macroeconomics