Post-crisis policy challenges in emerging market economies

BIS Annual Economic Report  | 
28 June 2010

Emerging market economies (EMEs) are recovering strongly and inflation pressures there are rising. Given low policy rates in the major financial centres, many EMEs are concerned that their stronger growth prospects could attract destabilising capital inflows, leading to currency appreciation. Some continue to keep policy rates low and resist exchange rate appreciation by conducting large-scale intervention in foreign exchange markets. Such policies tend to be associated with a sizeable expansion in bank balance sheets, rapid credit growth and asset price overshooting. The risks of domestic overheating thus increase. To promote more balanced domestic and global growth, some EMEs could rely more on exchange rate flexibility and on monetary policy tightening. In addition, prudential tools have an important role to play in enhancing the resilience of the financial system to domestic and external financial shocks. In contrast, while capital controls may have a limited and temporary role, they are unlikely to be effective over the medium term.