Low interest rates: do the risks outweigh the rewards?

BIS Annual Economic Report  | 
28 June 2010

Central banks cut policy rates sharply during the crisis in order to stabilise the financial system and the real economy. Those essential cuts, reinforced by unconventional policy measures to address financial market malfunctioning, helped to forestall an economic meltdown. But there are limits to how long monetary policy can remain expansionary. Low interest rates can distort investment decisions. The financial stability risks that could arise from a prolonged period of extremely low policy rates also need to be very carefully weighed. An extended period of such low policy rates can encourage borrowers to shorten the duration of their debts, facilitate the increased leverage of risky positions and delay necessary balance sheet adjustments. While policymakers can and should address such risks with other tools, they may still need to tighten monetary policy sooner than consideration of macroeconomic prospects alone might suggest.