Publications in peer-reviewed journals

Selected journal publications by BIS economists, 2014-2020

Forthcoming

• "Which credit gap is better at predicting financial crises? A comparison of univariate filters" (M Drehmann and J Yetman), International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming.
• "Exchange rates and prices: evidence from the 2015 Swiss franc appreciation" (R Auer, A Burstein, S Lein), American Economic Review.
• "CoCo issuance and bank fragility" (S Avdjiev, B Bogdanova, P Bolton, W Jiang, A Kartasheva), Journal of Financial Economics.
• "International trade finance and the cost channel of monetary policy in open economies" (N Patel), International Journal of Central Banking.
• "Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades" (A Mehrotra, D Mihaljek and E Kohlscheen), International Journal of Central Banking.
• "Non-monetary news in central bank communication" (A Cieslak and A Schrimpf), Journal of International Economics.
• "The microstructure of central bank bond purchases" (K Schlepper, H Hofer, R Riordan and A Schrimpf), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

• "The costs of macroprudential policy" (B Richter, M Schularick and I Shim), Journal of International Economics. 

• "Exchange rate pass-through: what has changed since the crisis?" (R Moessner and E Takáts), International Journal of Central Banking. 

• "Computing long-term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectations markets" (P Gerlach-Kristen, R Moessner and R Rosenblatt-Wisch), International Journal of Central Banking.
• "Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies - evidence from four inflation targeting economies"  (S Kim and A Mehrotra), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
• "Macroprudential policy and bank risk" (L Gambacorta, Y Altunbas and M Binici), Journal of International Money and Finance. 
• "Leverage and risk weighted capital requirements" (L Gambacorta and S Karmakar), International Journal of Central Banking.
• "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers" (F Zhu, A Filardo, Q Chen and D He), Journal of International Money and Finance. 

2020

• "A loan-level analysis of financial resilience in Mexico" (C Cantú, R Lobato, C López and F López-Gallo), Journal of Banking & Finance, September 2020.

• "Does informality facilitate inflation stability?" (E Alberola-Ila and C Urrutia), Journal of Development Economics, September 2020.
• "The shifting drivers of global liquidity" (S Avdjiev, L Gambacorta, L Goldberg, S Schiaffi), Journal of International Economics, July 2020.

• "How do bank-specific characteristics affect lending? New evidence based on credit registry data from Latin America" (C Cantú, S Claessens and L Gambacorta), Journal of Banking & Finance, May 2020.

• "The dollar, bank leverage and real economic activity: an evolving relationship" (B Erik, M Lombardi, D Mihaljek and H S Shin), AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2020.
• "Global imbalances from a stock perspective: the asymmetry between creditors and debtors" (E Alberola-Ila, A Estrada and F Viani), Journal of International Money and Finance, May 2020.
• "Accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and risk-taking" (R Fatum and J Yetman), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2020.
• "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve" (J C Wu and D Xia), Journal of Applied Econometrics, April 2020.
• "Foreign banks and trade" (S Claessens and N van Horen), Journal of Financial Intermediation, February 2020.

2019

• "Global value chains and effective exchange rates at the country-sector level" (N Patel and S J Wei), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2019.
• "The economics and politics of revoking NAFTA" (R Auer, B Bonadio and A Levchenko), IMF Economic Review, November 2019.
• "Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending: lessons from the 2013 Fed Taper Tantrum" (S Avdjiev and E Takáts), Review of Finance, September 2019.
• "(Un)conventional policy and the effective lower bound" (O Tristani and F De Fiore), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, September 2019.
• "The dollar, bank leverage, and the deviation from covered interest" (S Avdjiev, W Du, C Koch and H S Shin), American Economic Review: Insights, September 2019.
• "Credit ratings of Chinese firms by domestic and global agencies: assessing the determinants and impact" (X Jiang and F Packer), Journal of Banking & Finance, August 2019.
• "US monetary policy and fluctuations of international bank lending" (S Avdjiev and G Hale), Journal of International Money and Finance, July 2019. 
• "International inflation spillovers through input linkages" (R Auer, P Sauré and A Levchenko), Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2019.
• "Exports and invoicing: evidence from the 2015 Swiss franc appreciation" (R Auer, A Burstein, K Erhardt and S Lein), American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2019.
• "The dollar exchange rate as a global risk factor: evidence from investment" (Stefan Avdjiev , Valentina Bruno , Catherine Koch and Hyun Song Shin ), IMF Economic Review, February 2019.

2018

• "Credit subsidies" (I Correia, F De Fiore, P Teles and O Tristani), Journal of Monetary Economics, December 2018.
• "Decaying expectations: what inflation forecasts tell us about the anchoring of inflation expectations" (A Mehrotra and J Yetman), International Journal of Central Banking, December 2018. 
• "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy" (L Gambacorta and H S Shin), Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2018,  awarded as the Best Paper for 2018 by the Journal of Financial Intermediation (JFI). 
• " Transmission of monetary policy through global banks: whose policy matters?" (S Avdjiev, C Koch, P McGuire, G von Peter), Journal of International Money and Finance, December 2018.
• " What drives local lending by global banks?" (S Avdjiev, U Aysun and R Hepp), Journal of International Money and Finance, September 2018. 
• "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter" (G Kamber, J Morley and B Wong), Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2018. 
• "Low-For-Long' interest rates and banks' interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence" (S Claessens, N Coleman and M Donnelly), Journal of Financial Intermediation, July 2018.
• "The impact of liquidity regulation on banks" (R Banerjee and H Mio), Journal of Financial Intermediation, July 2018. 

• "Central bank forward guidance and the signal value of market prices" (S Morris and H S Shin), American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, May 2018.

• "Exchange rates and the working capital channel of trade fluctuations" (V Bruno, S-J Kim and H S Shin), AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018.

• "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?" (J Shek, I Shim and H S Shin), Review of Finance, 2018.
• "The distance effect in banking and trade" (G von Peter and M Brei), Journal of International Money and Finance, March 2018.
• "Threat of entry and debt maturity: evidence from airlines" (G Parise), Journal of Financial Economics, February 2018.
• "Quality pricing-to-market (R Auer, T Chaney and P Sauré), Journal of International Economics, January 2018.

2017

• "Liquidity regulation and the implementation of monetary policy" (M Bech and T Keister), Journal of Monetary Economics, December 2017.
• "Product heterogeneity, cross-country taste differences, and the growth of world trade" (R Auer), European Economic Review, November 2017. 
• "When the walk is not random: commodity prices and exchange rates" (E Kohlscheen, F Avalos and A Schrimpf), International Journal of Central Banking, June 2017.
• "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?" (P Disyatat and P Rungcharoenkitkul), Journal of International Money and Finance,  June 2017.
• "Revisiting the commodity curse: a financial perspective" (E Alberola and G Benigno), Journal of International Economics, May 2017. 
• "Risk sharing and real exchange rates: the role of non-tradable sector and trend shocks" (C Akkoyun, Y Arslan and M Kilinc), Journal of International Money and Finance, May 2017.
• "International prudential policy spillovers: a global perspective" (S Avdjiev, C Koch, P McGuire and G von Peter), International Journal of Central Banking, 2017.
• "Redemption risk and cash hoarding by asset managers" (I Shim, S Morris and H S Shin), Journal of Monetary Economics, August 2017. 
• "Bank capital and dividend externalities" (V Acharya, H Le, and H S Shin), Review of Financial Studies, 2017. 
• "Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis" (H S Shin and V Bruno), Review of Financial Studies, 2017, .
• "Dynamic entry in vertically differentiated markets" (R Auer and P Sauré), Journal of Economic Theory, 2017.
• "News-driven business cycles in open economies" (G Kamber, K Theodoridis and C Thoenissen), Journal of International Economics, 2017.
• "Currency value" (A Schrimpf, L Menkhoff, M Schmeling and L Sarno), Review of Financial Studies, 2017.
• "Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities" (V Acharya, M Fleming, W Hrung and A Sarkar), Journal of Financial Economics, January 2017.

2016

• "Relationship and transaction lending in a crisis" (P Bolton, X Freixas, L Gambacorta and P Mistrulli), Review of Financial Studies, 2016.
• "Global liquidity and drivers of cross-border bank flows" (S Claessens, E Cerutti and L Ratnovski), Economic Policy, 2016.
• "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through" (R Auer and R Schoenle), Journal of International Economics, 2016.
• "Comments on 'Measuring openness to trade' by M E Waugh and B Ravikumar" (R Auer), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016.
• "Liquidity risk and the credit crunch of 2007-2008: evidence from micro-level data on mortgage loan applications" (A Antoniades), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, December 2016.
• "Illiquidity component of credit risk- the 2015 Lawrence R Klein Lecture" (H S Shin and S Morris), International Economic Review, November 2016.
• "On the centrality of the current account in international economics" (C Borio), Journal of International Money and Finance, November 2016.
• "Banks and capital requirements: channels of adjustment" (B Cohen and M Scatigna), Journal of Banking and Finance, August 2016.
• "A search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation" (M Bech and C Monnet), Journal of Economic Theory, July 2016.
• "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets" (L Barras and A Malkhozov), Journal of Financial Economics, July 2016.
• "Common belief foundations of global games" (H S Shin, S Morris and M Yildiz), Journal of Economic Theory, May 2016.
• "Interbank markets and banking crises: new evidence on the establishment and impact of the Federal Reserve" (M Carlson and D Wheelock), American Economic Review, May 2016.
• "News driven business cycles and data on asset prices in estimated DSGE models" (S Avdjiev), Review of Economic Dynamics, April 2016.
• "International reserves and gross capital flow dynamics" (E Alberola-Ila, A Erce and J M Serena), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2016. 
• "Mortgage risk and the yield curve" (A Malkhozov, P Mueller, A Vedolin and G Venter), Review of Financial Studies, January 2016. 
• "Corporate governance and risk management at unprotected banks: National banks in the 1890s" (C Calomiris and M Carlson), Journal of Financial Economics, 2016.
• "Booms and banking crises" (F Boissay, F Collard and F Smets), Journal of Political Economy, 2016.
• "Information flows in foreign exchange markets: dissecting customer currency trades" (L Menkhoff, L Sarno, A Schrimpf and M Schmeling), Journal of Finance, April 2016.
• "Asymmetric information in securitization: an empirical assessment" (U Albertazzi, G Eramo, L Gambacorta and C Salleo), Journal of Monetary Economics, April 2016.
• "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets" (L Barras and A Malkhozov), Journal of Financial Economics, 2016.
• "The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy" (M Hattori, A Schrimpf and V Sushko), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2016.
• "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance" (S Avdjiev R Mc Cauley and H S Shin, Economic Policy, 2016.
• "Are bank capital ratios pro-cyclical? New evidence and perspectives" (M Brei and L Gambacorta), Economic Policy, 2016.
• "Banks and capital requirements: Channels of adjustment" (B Cohen and M Scatigna), Journal of Banking and Finance, 2016.

2015

• "Assessing the CNH-CNY pricing differential: role of fundamentals, contagion and policy" (M Funke, C Shu, X Q Cheng and S Eraslan), Journal of International Money and Finance, December 2015.
• "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows" (R Banerjee, M B Devereux and G Lombardo), Journal of International Money and Finance, November 2016.
• "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old" (M Amstad, E Remolona and J Shek), Journal of International Money and Finance, January 2016. 
• "Corporate debt structure and the financial crisis" (F De Fiore and H Uhlig), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2015.
• "Balance sheet effects, foreign reserves and public policies" (G Cheng), Journal of International Money and Finance, December 2015.
• "Applying an inflation targeting lens to macro-prudential policy institutions" (G Kamber, O Karagedikli and C Smith), International Journal of Central Banking, September 2015.
• "US monetary policy and commodity sector prices" (R Sousa, S Hammoudeh and D Khuong Nguyen), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015.
• "Risk attribution using the Shapley value: methodology and policy applications" (N Tarashev, K Tsatsaronis and C Borio), Review of Finance, 2015.
• "Human capital and the dynamic effects of trade"(R Auer), Journal of Development Economics, 2015.
• "Cross-border banking and global liquidity" (V Bruno and H S Shin), Review of Economic Studies, 2015. 
• "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy" (V Bruno and H S Shin), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015. 
• "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage" (R McCauley, P McGuire and V Sushko), Economic Policy, 2015. 
• "Credit availability and the collapse of the banking sector in the 1930s" (M Carlson and J Rose), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015.
• "Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates" (H S Shin, K Chung, J E Lee, E Loukoianova and H Park), Economic Policy, 2015.
• "For a few dollars more: reserves and growth in times of crises" (M Bussière, G Cheng, M Chinn and N Lisack), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2015.
• "Joint dynamics of house prices and foreclosures" (Y Arslan, B Guler and T Taskin), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015.
• "Liquidity hoarding and inefficient abundant funding" (E Kharroubi), International Journal of Central Banking, 2015.
• "Official FX interventions through derivatives" (E Kohlscheen and S Andrade), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015.
• "Responses to the financial crisis, treasury debt, and the impact on short-term money markets" (J Seligman and W Hrung), International Journal of Central Banking, 2015.
• "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?" (R McCauley), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015.

2014

• "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis" (R Auer), Economic Policy, 2014.
• "Sudden floods, macroprudential regulation and stability in an open economy" (P-R Agénor, K Alper and L A Pereira da Silva), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014.
• "Procyclical leverage and value-at-risk" (T Adrian and H S Shin), Review of Financial Studies, 2014.
• "Cyclical fiscal policy, credit constraints, and industry growth" (P Aghion, D Hémous and E Kharroubi), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014. 
• "Dividend predictability around the world" (J Rangvid, M Schmeling and A Schrimpf), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2014.
• "International diversification benefits with foreign exchange investment styles" (A Schrimpf, T Kroencke and F Schindler), Review of Finance, 2014.
• "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?" (C Borio), Journal of Banking and Finance, August 2014. 
• "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound" (L Gambacorta, B Hofmann and G Peersman), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014.
• "Bank heterogeneity and interest rate setting: what lessons have we learned since Lehman Brothers?" (L Gambacorta and P E Mistrulli), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2014. 
• "Understanding global liquidity" (L Gambacorta, B Hofmann and S Eickmeier), European Economic Review, 2014. 
• "Interbank tiering and money center banks" (B Craig and G von Peter), Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2014. 
• "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? An analysis based on a DSGE model with banking" (L Gambacorta and F Signoretti), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014. 
• "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific" (R Auer and A Mehrotra), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014.
• "Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates" (J Yetman and M Devereux), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014. 
• "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies" (E Kohlscheen), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014.
• "Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break" (F Avalos), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2014.
• "Does monetary policy affect bank risk?" (Y Altunbas, L Gambacorta, D Marques-Ibanez), International Journal of Central Banking, March 2014.