Publications in peer-reviewed journals

Selected journal publications by BIS economists, 2014-19

• "Decaying expectations: what inflation forecasts tell us about the anchoring of inflation expectations" (A Mehrotra and J Yetman), International Journal of Central Banking, vol 14, no 5, December 2018, pp 55-101. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 464.

• "Non-monetary news in central bank communication" (A Cieslak and A Schrimpf), Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 761.
• "The microstructure of central bank bond purchases" (K Schlepper, H Hofer, R Riordan and A Schrimpf), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, forthcoming.

• "The costs of macroprudential policy" (B Richter, M Schularick and I Shim), Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 740.

• "US monetary policy and fluctuations of international bank lending" (S Avdjiev and G Hale), Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 730.
• "The dollar exchange rate as a global risk factor: evidence from investment" (Stefan Avdjiev , Valentina Bruno , Catherine Koch and Hyun Song Shin ), IMF Economic Review, February 2019.

• "International inflation spillovers through input linkages" (R Auer, P Sauré and A Levchenko), Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2019.

• "The dollar, bank leverage, and the deviation from covered interest" (S Avdjiev, W Du, C Koch and H S Shin), American Economic Review: Insights, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 592.

• "Exchange rate pass-through: what has changed since the crisis?" (R Moessner and E Takáts), International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 583.

• "Computing long-term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectations markets" (P Gerlach-Kristen, R Moessner and R Rosenblatt-Wisch), International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming.
• "Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies - evidence from four inflation targeting economies"  (S Kim and A Mehrotra), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.
• "Macroprudential policy and bank risk" (L Gambacorta, Y Altunbas and M Binici), Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 646. 
• "Leverage and risk weighted capital requirements" (L Gambacorta and S Karmakar), International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 586.
• "Low-For-Long' interest rates and banks' interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence" (S Claessens, N Coleman and M Donnelly), Journal of Financial Intermediation, forthcoming.
• "The impact of liquidity regulation on banks" (R Banerjee and H Mio), Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2017, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 470.
• "Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending: lessons from the 2013 Fed Taper Tantrum" (S Avdjiev and E Takáts), Review of Finance, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 549.
• "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter" (G Kamber, J Morley and B Wong), Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 584.
• "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy" (L Gambacorta and H S Shin), Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol 35, 2018, pp 17-29,  awarded as the Best Paper for 2018 by the Journal of Financial Intermediation (JFI). Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 558.
• "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers" (F Zhu, A Filardo, Q Chen and D He), Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 494.
• " Transmission of monetary policy through global banks: whose policy matters?" (S Avdjiev, C Koch, P McGuire, G von Peter), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 89, December 2018, pp 67-82. Also published as BIS Working Paper, no 737.
• " What drives local lending by global banks?" (S Avdjiev, U Aysun and R Hepp), Journal of International Money and Finance, September 2018. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 746.

• "Central bank forward guidance and the signal value of market prices" (S Morris and H S Shin), American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, vol 108, May 2018.

• "Exchange rates and the working capital channel of trade fluctuations" (V Bruno, S-J Kim and H S Shin), AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 108, May 2018.

• "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?" (J Shek, I Shim and H S Shin), Review of Finance, vol 22, no 1, 2018, pp 207-41. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 509.
• "The distance effect in banking and trade" (G von Peter and M Brei), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 81, March 2018, pp 116-37.
• "Threat of entry and debt maturity: evidence from airlines" (G Parise), Journal of Financial Economics, vol 127, issue 2, February 2018, pp 226-47. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 556.
• "Quality pricing-to-market (R Auer, T Chaney and P Sauré), Journal of International Economics, vol 110, January 2018, pp 87-102.
• "Liquidity regulation and the implementation of monetary policy" (M Bech and T Keister), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 92, December 2017, pp 64-77. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 432.
• "Product heterogeneity, cross-country taste differences, and the growth of world trade" (R Auer), European Economic Review, vol 100, November 2017, pp 1-27. 
• "When the walk is not random: commodity prices and exchange rates" (E Kohlscheen, F Avalos and A Schrimpf), International Journal of Central Banking, vol 13, no 2, June 2017, pp 121-58. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 551.
• "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?" (P Disyatat and P Rungcharoenkitkul), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 74, June 2017, pp 115-136. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 518.
• "Revisiting the commodity curse: a financial perspective" (E Alberola and G Benigno), Journal of International Economics, vol 108, no 1, May 2017. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 609. 
• "Risk sharing and real exchange rates: the role of non-tradable sector and trend shocks" (C Akkoyun, Y Arslan and M Kilinc), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 73, part A, May 2017, pp 232-48. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 613.
• "International prudential policy spillovers: a global perspective" (S Avdjiev, C Koch, P McGuire and G von Peter), International Journal of Central Banking, vol 13(S1), 2017, pp 5-33. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 589.
• "Redemption risk and cash hoarding by asset managers" (I Shim, S Morris and H S Shin), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 89, August 2017. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 608.
• "Bank capital and dividend externalities" (V Acharya, H Le, and H S Shin), Review of Financial Studies, vol 30, no 3, 2017, pp 988-1018. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 580.
• "Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis" (H S Shin and V Bruno), Review of Financial Studies, vol 30, no 3, 2017, pp 703-49. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 510.
• "Dynamic entry in vertically differentiated markets" (R Auer and P Sauré), Journal of Economic Theory, vol 167(C), 2017, pp 177-205.
• "News-driven business cycles in open economies" (G Kamber, K Theodoridis and C Thoenissen), Journal of International Economics, vol 105, 2017, pp 77-89.
• "Currency value" (A Schrimpf, L Menkhoff, M Schmeling and L Sarno), Review of Financial Studies, vol 30, issue 2, 2017.
• "Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities" (V Acharya, M Fleming, W Hrung and A Sarkar), Journal of Financial Economics, vol 123, issue 1, January 2017, pp 81-107.
• "Relationship and transaction lending in a crisis" (P Bolton, X Freixas, L Gambacorta and P Mistrulli), Review of Financial Studies, vol 29, no 10, 2016, pp 2643-76. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 417.
• "Global liquidity and drivers of cross-border bank flows" (S Claessens, E Cerutti and L Ratnovski), Economic Policy, 2016.
• "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through" (R Auer and R Schoenle), Journal of International Economics, vol 98(C), 2016, pp 60-77.
• "Comments on 'Measuring openness to trade' by M E Waugh and B Ravikumar" (R Auer), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,  vol 72(C), 2016, pp 42-4.
• "Liquidity risk and the credit crunch of 2007-2008: evidence from micro-level data on mortgage loan applications" (A Antoniades), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol 51, issue 6, December 2016, pp 1795-822.
• "Illiquidity component of credit risk- the 2015 Lawrence R Klein Lecture" (H S Shin and S Morris), International Economic Review, vol 57, issue 4, November 2016, pp 1135-48.
• "On the centrality of the current account in international economics" (C Borio), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 68, November 2016, pp 266-274.
• "Banks and capital requirements: channels of adjustment" (B Cohen and M Scatigna), Journal of Banking and Finance, vol 69, supp 1, pp S56-S69, August 2016.
• "A search-based model of the interbank money market and monetary policy implementation" (M Bech and C Monnet), Journal of Economic Theory, vol 164, July 2016, pp 32-67. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 529.
• "Common belief foundations of global games" (H S Shin, S Morris and M Yildiz), Journal of Economic Theory, vol 163, May 2016, pp 826-48.
• "Interbank markets and banking crises: new evidence on the establishment and impact of the Federal Reserve" (M Carlson and D Wheelock), American Economic Review, vol 106, no 5, May 2016, pp 533-7.
• "News driven business cycles and data on asset prices in estimated DSGE models" (S Avdjiev), Review of Economic Dynamics, vol 20, April 2016, pp 181-97. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 358.
• "International reserves and gross capital flow dynamics" (E Alberola-Ila, A Erce and J M Serena), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 60, pp 151-71, February 2016. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 512.
• "Mortgage risk and the yield curve" (A Malkhozov, P Mueller, A Vedolin and G Venter), Review of Financial Studies, vol 29, no 5, January 2016, pp 1220-53. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 532.
• "Corporate governance and risk management at unprotected banks: National banks in the 1890s" (C Calomiris and M Carlson), Journal of Financial Economics, vol 119, no 3, 2016, pp 512-32.
• "Booms and banking crises" (F Boissay, F Collard and F Smets), Journal of Political Economy, vol 124, no 2, 2016, pp 489-538. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 545.
• "Information flows in foreign exchange markets: dissecting customer currency trades" (L Menkhoff, L Sarno, A Schrimpf and M Schmeling), Journal of Finance, vol 71, no 2, April 2016, pp 601-34. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 405.
• "Asymmetric information in securitization: an empirical assessment" (U Albertazzi, G Eramo, L Gambacorta and C Salleo), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 71, April 2016, pp 33-49. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 601.
• "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets" (L Barras and A Malkhozov), Journal of Financial Economics, vol 121, no 1, 2016, pp 79-92. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 521.
• "The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy" (M Hattori, A Schrimpf and V Sushko), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol 8, no 2, 2016. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 425.
• "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance" (S Avdjiev R Mc Cauley and H S Shin, Economic Policy, vol 31, no 87, 2016, pp 409-51. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 524.
• "Are bank capital ratios pro-cyclical? New evidence and perspectives" (M Brei and L Gambacorta), Economic Policy, vol 31, no 86, 2016, pp 357-403. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 471.
• "Banks and capital requirements: Channels of adjustment" (B Cohen and M Scatigna), Journal of Banking and Finance, vol 69, sup 1, s56-s59, 2016. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 443.
• "Assessing the CNH-CNY pricing differential: role of fundamentals, contagion and policy" (M Funke, C Shu, X Q Cheng and S Eraslan), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 59, December 2015, pp 245-62. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 492.
• "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows" (R Banerjee, M B Devereux and G Lombardo), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 68, November 2016, pp 275-97. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 540.
• "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old" (M Amstad, E Remolona and J Shek), Journal of International Money and Finance, January 2016. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 541.
• "Applying an inflation targeting lens to macro-prudential policy institutions" (G Kamber, O Karagedikli and C Smith), International Journal of Central Banking, September 2015.
• "US monetary policy and commodity sector prices" (R Sousa, S Hammoudeh and D Khuong Nguyen), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 57, 2015, pp 61-85.
• "Risk attribution using the Shapley value: methodology and policy applications" (N Tarashev, K Tsatsaronis and C Borio), Review of Finance, vol 20, no 3, 2015, pp 1189-213.
• "Human capital and the dynamic effects of trade"(R Auer), Journal of Development Economics, vol 117(C), 2015, pp 107-18.
• "Cross-border banking and global liquidity" (V Bruno and H S Shin), Review of Economic Studies, vol 82, no 2, 2015. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 458.
• "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy" (V Bruno and H S Shin), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 71, 2015. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 400.
• "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage" (R McCauley, P McGuire and V Sushko), Economic Policy, vol 30, 2015. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 483.
• "Credit availability and the collapse of the banking sector in the 1930s" (M Carlson and J Rose), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 47, no 7, 2015.
• "Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates" (H S Shin, K Chung, J E Lee, E Loukoianova and H Park), Economic Policy, vol 82, 2015.
• "Joint dynamics of house prices and foreclosures" (Y Arslan, B Guler and T Taskin), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 47, no 1, 2015.
• "Liquidity hoarding and inefficient abundant funding" (E Kharroubi), International Journal of Central Banking, vol 11, 2015.
• "Official FX interventions through derivatives" (E Kohlscheen and S Andrade), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 47, 2015, pp 202-16.
• "Responses to the financial crisis, treasury debt, and the impact on short-term money markets" (J Seligman and W Hrung), International Journal of Central Banking, vol 11, 2015.
• "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?" (R McCauley), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 57, pp 1-14, 2015.
• "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis" (R Auer), Economic Policy, vol 29, no 77, 2014, pp 139-97.
• "Sudden floods, macroprudential regulation and stability in an open economy" (P-R Agénor, K Alper and L A Pereira da Silva), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 48, 2014.
• "Procyclical leverage and value-at-risk" (T Adrian and H S Shin), Review of Financial Studies, vol 27, no 2, 2014.
• "Cyclical fiscal policy, credit constraints, and industry growth" (P Aghion, D Hémous and E Kharroubi), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 62, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 340.
• "Dividend predictability around the world" (J Rangvid, M Schmeling and A Schrimpf), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol 49, no 5-6, 2014.
• "International diversification benefits with foreign exchange investment styles" (A Schrimpf, T Kroencke and F Schindler), Review of Finance, vol 18, no 5, 2014.
• "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?" (C Borio), Journal of Banking and Finance, August 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 395.
• "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound" (L Gambacorta, B Hofmann and G Peersman), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 46, no 4, 2014.
• "Bank heterogeneity and interest rate setting: what lessons have we learned since Lehman Brothers?" (L Gambacorta and P E Mistrulli), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 46, no 4, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 359.
• "Understanding global liquidity" (L Gambacorta, B Hofmann and S Eickmeier), European Economic Review, vol 68, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 402. 
• "Interbank tiering and money center banks" (B Craig and G von Peter), Journal of Financial Intermediation, vol 23, no 3, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 322.
• "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? An analysis based on a DSGE model with banking" (L Gambacorta and F Signoretti), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 43, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 418.
• "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific" (R Auer and A Mehrotra), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 49, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 447.
• "Globalisation, pass-through and the optimal policy response to exchange rates" (J Yetman and M Devereux), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 49, 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 450.
• "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies" (E Kohlscheen), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 44, 2014.
• "Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break" (F Avalos), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 42, April 2014, pp 253-71.
• "Does monetary policy affect bank risk?" (Y Altunbas, L Gambacorta, D Marques-Ibanez), International Journal of Central Banking, March 2014. Also published as BIS Working Papers, no 298.