Green Swan 2023: Climate transition in the real economy: what should central banks know about it?

A virtual conference co-organised by the Bank for International Settlements, the Central Bank of Chile, the Network for Greening the Financial System and the South African Reserve Bank.

The third edition of Green Swan Conference brings together a wide range of high-calibre policymakers, experts and practitioners from different sectors to discuss in more detail climate transition and the real economy.

Day 1 focuses on new technologies and scaling up already feasible solutions, day 2 on the macroeconomic implications of the transition.

Agenda as of 24 May 2023. All times in CEST

Day 1: 31 May

Opening event
12:00 - 12:05

Welcome remarks

  • Luiz Pereira da Silva / BIS
12:05 - 12:30

Opening address - A Supervisory Push for Transition Planning and Blended Finance

  • Ravi Menon / Monetary Authority of Singapore and NGFS
Session 1: Deploying feasible solutions at speed and scale
13:00 - 15:00

Presentations and panel discussion

  • Doug Arent / National Renewable Energy Laboratory
  • Georgina Grenon / Paris 2024 Organising Committee
  • Suzi Kerr / Environmental Defense Fund
  • James Thurlow / International Food Policy Research Institute
  • Chair: Mamokete Lijane / Economic Research Southern Africa
Session 2: Developing new technologies
15:30 -17:30

Case studies and panel discussion

  • José Miguel Benavente / Corporación de Fomento de la Producción
  • Renaud Crassous / NUWARD, EDF Group
  • Paul Hugues / International Energy Agency
  • M Mercedes Maroto-Valer / Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre
  • Chair: Bertille Delaveau / Banque de France

Day 2: 1 June

Session 3: Macroeconomic implications
14:00 - 14:55

Panel: Macroeconomic impacts of transition and physical risks: an analytical perspective

  • Philippe Aghion / Collège de France
  • Tamma Carleton / UC Santa Barbara
  • John Hassler / Stockholm University
  • James Stock / Harvard University
  • Chair: Elías Albagli / Central Bank of Chile
15:05 - 15:20

Keynote address

  • Mark Carney / UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance
15:20 - 16:15

Panel: Macroeconomic impacts of transition and physical risks: a policy perspective

  • Ilan Goldfajn / Inter-American Development Bank
  • Debora Revoltella / European Investment Bank
  • Nicholas Stern / London School of Economics
  • Chair: Stephany Griffith-Jones / Central Bank of Chile
Closing event
16:30 - 18:00

High-level panel: Climate, tech and transition in the real economy: what should central banks know - and do - about them?

  • Stephany Griffith-Jones / Central Bank of Chile
  • Lesetja Kganyago / South African Reserve Bank
  • François Villeroy de Galhau / Banque de France
  • Chair: Agustín Carstens / BIS

Philippe Aghion is a Professor at the College de France and at INSEAD, and a visiting professor at the London School of Economics and a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. His research focuses on the economics of growth. With Peter Howitt, he pioneered the so-called Schumpeterian Growth paradigm which was subsequently used to analyze the design of growth policies and the role of the state in the growth process. Much of this work is summarized in their joint book Endogenous Growth Theory (MIT Press, 1998) and The Economics of Growth (MIT Press, 2009), in his book with Rachel Griffith on Competition and Growth (MIT Press, 2006), and in his survey "What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory" (joint with U. Akcigit and P. Howitt).

In 2001, Philippe Aghion received the Yrjo Jahnsson Award of the best European economist under age 45, in 2009 he received the John Von Neumann Award, and in March 2020 he shared the BBVA "Frontier of Knowledge Award" with Peter Howitt for "developing an economic growth theory based on the innovation that emerges from the process of creative destruction". More recently Philippe Aghion produced a new book entitled The Power of Creative destruction (Odile Jacob, Harvard University Press) joint with C. Antonin et S. Bunel. While providing a reappraisal of the foundations of economic success and a blueprint for change, The Power of Creative Destruction also shows that a fair and prosperous future is ultimately ours to make.

Elías Albagli is Director of the Monetary Policy Division and Chief Economist at the Central Bank of Chile. Mr. Albagli holds a PhD in Economics from Harvard University.

He has published several articles in leading economic journals in the fields of information theory, macroeconomics, finance, and labor markets. He is also an active member of the NGFS, contributing to the Monetary Policy Workstream and the Task Force on Nature. He has dictated numerous courses in the University of Southern California, Catholic University of Chile and University of Chile, where he currently teaches "Planetary Boundaries and Economic Development".

As executive director, Doug Arent focuses on strategic public and private partnerships with NREL to transform energy economies at speed and scale across the globe.

Arent has worked in research on energy and sustainability for more than 30 years, publishing extensively on topics within clean energy, renewable energy, power systems, natural gas, and the intersection of science and public policy.

In addition to his NREL responsibilities, Arent is senior visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He serves on the World Economic Forum Future of Electricity Working Group and advisory boards for the Post Carbon Transition Program at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford University, U.K.; the Smart Electric Power Association; and the Energy Academy of Europe, Netherlands. He is also member of the Keystone Energy Board. Arent is the editor in chief for Renewable Energy Focus and is associate editor for the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Arent has a PhD from Princeton University, an MBA from Regis University, and a bachelor's of science from Harvey Mudd College in California.

José Miguel Benavente is the Vice-President of Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (CORFO).

Dr Tamma Carleton is an Assistant Professor at the Bren School of Environmental Science and Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Her research combines economics with remote sensing, data science, and climate science to quantify how environmental change and economic development shape one another. She focuses on climate change, water scarcity, and equity implications of environmental change. Tamma is a member of the Climate Impact Lab, a research associate at the Environmental Markets Lab, a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, an affiliate of the Center for Effective Global Action, and a Beijer Young Scholar. She joined the Bren School after a postdoc at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and holds a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and MSc.'s in Environmental Change and Management as well as Economics for Development from the University of Oxford.

Mark Carney is currently the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance and Co-Chair for the Glasgow Finance Alliance for Net Zero, a practitioner-led coalition working to increase the financial sector's ambition on climate change and accelerate the transition to a net-zero economy. Mark is a member of the Arnhold Distinguished Fellowship Program Board within Conservation International.

Mark was previously Governor of the Bank of England (from 2013 to 2020), and Governor of the Bank of Canada (from 2008 to 2013). Internationally, Mark was Chair of the Financial Stability Board (from 2011 to 2018), He chaired the Global Economy Meeting and Economic Consultative Committee of the BIS (from 2018-2020) and was First Vice-Chair of the European Systemic Risk Board (from 2013-2020). Mark is also an external member of Stripe's Board, a global technology company building economic infrastructure for the internet.

He is Chair of Brookfield Asset Management and Chair of the Chatham House Panel of Senior Advisers. Mark is a member of the Global Advisory Board of PIMCO, the Group of Thirty, the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum, as well as the boards of Bloomberg Philanthropies, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, The Hoffman Institute for Global Business and Society at INSEAD and Senior Counselor to Macro Advisory Partners.

Agustín Carstens became General Manager of the BIS on 1 December 2017.

Mr Carstens was Governor of the Bank of Mexico from 2010 to 2017. A member of the BIS Board from 2011 to 2017, he was chair of the Global Economy Meeting and the Economic Consultative Committee from 2013 until 2017. He also chaired the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMF's policy advisory committee from 2015 to 2017.

Mr Carstens began his career in 1980 at the Bank of Mexico. From 1999 to 2000, he was Executive Director at the IMF. He later served as Mexico's deputy finance minister (2000-03) and as Deputy Managing Director at the IMF (2003-06). He was Mexico's finance minister from 2006 to 2009.

Mr Carstens has been a member of the Financial Stability Board since 2010 and is a member of the Group of Thirty.

Mr Carstens holds an MA and a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.

Renaud Crassous is Executive President of NUWARD.

He began his career as a researcher in the field of economics particularly looking at energy scenarios and policies to fight climate change. He joined EDF Group in 2009 where he held positions in Strategy and later in Operations for the Generation and Hydraulic Engineering Division. In 2017, he took over as Director of the engineering center responsible for the conventional island and balance of plant for nuclear power plants (CNEPE). In 2020, he became SMR project Director then, in 2023, Executive President of NUWARD, EDF Group's subsidiary dedicated to SMR.

Renaud is a graduate of the École Polytechnique, an engineer from the Ponts, eaux et forêts in France and holds a doctorate in economics.

Bertille Delaveau is the Head of Climate Change Centre, Banque de France.

Ilan Goldfajn was elected IDB president on November 20, 2022.

He served as Director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund in 2022, where he helped countries implement IMF-supported programs to address an unprecedented array of challenges. He also contributed to the region's policy dialogue on climate change with the IMF and oversaw the first Resilience and Sustainability Facility of the institution. Earlier in his career, he worked as an economist at the IMF, 1996-1999.

Mr Goldfajn previously served as Governor of the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) 2016-2019 and Deputy Governor 2000-2003. He led the BCB in a period of unprecedented decline in inflation and interest rates in Brazil. In 2017, he was elected Central Banker of the Year by The Banker magazine. The year after, Global Finance magazine him named the Best Central Banker. Mr Goldfajn's private sector experience includes key positions at Brazil's financial institutions: Chief Economist and Partner of Itaú Unibanco, founding Partner of Ciano Investimentos, Partner and Economist at Gávea Investimentos and Chairman of Credit Suisse Brazil's Advisory Board. He has also had several roles as a consultant at top public sector institutions including the World Bank, the United Nations and the IMF.

He has an extensive academic career. He taught graduate and undergraduate economics at universities in Brazil and the United States. He has worked as an editor of various publications, as well as written and published numerous articles and books. Mr. Goldfajn holds a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), a master's degree in Economics from the Pontificia Universidade Católica and a bachelor's degree in Economics from the Universidade Federal, both in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

An expert in renewable energies and clean technology innovation, Georgina Grenon obtained an MSc in Chemical Engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires (Argentina) and an MBA from INSEAD Business School (France). Polyglot, she has triple nationality:  Argentinean, French and Italian.

Georgina began her career in business development at YPF SA, the national oil company in Argentina. She then took up position as a director at international strategy consultancy Booz Allen Hamilton, devoting herself mainly to energy and operations, working in Europe, the USA, Japan and South America for nearly ten years. She then joined the Directorate-General of Energy and Climate (DGEC), part of the French Ministry of Ecology and Energy, where she supported the development of renewable energy policies and markets for six years. She also represented France at the International Energy Agency, promoting international cooperation in the creation of markets, innovation and the deployment of clean technologies, playing an active part at COP21 and, among other things, helping to create the International Solar Alliance. She then moved to the ENGIE Group, becoming director of the New Business Factory at ENGIE Fab.

In August 2018, Georgina Grenon has joined the Organising Committee for the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games as its Director of Sustainability.

Dr Stephany Griffith-Jones is a Board Member of the Central Bank of Chile since May 2022.

She holds a PhD in Economics, from Cambridge University, UK. She is Professor Emeritus at Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK, Director of Financial Markets at Columbia University's Initiative for Economic Policy Dialogue, Senior Research Associate at ODI London, Non-Resident Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington DC and Distinguished Fellow at the Climateworks Foundation in California.

A prolific author, she has written or edited more than twenty-five books and numerous journal and newspaper articles. A 2010 Oxford University Press book co-edited with Joseph Stiglitz and José Antonio Ocampo "Time for a Visible Hand" deals mainly with financial regulation.  She has led many international research projects. Former advisor to multiple international organizations, including the European Commission, the European Parliament, the World Bank, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the IADB, the AfDB, and several UN agencies such as ECLAC, UNDESA, UNDP and various governments and central banks, including governments of United Kingdom, Sweden, South Africa and Brazil and the central banks of Chile, Tanzania, and the Czech Republic.

John Hassler is Professor of Economics at the Institute for International Economic Studies at Stockholm University.

Professor Hassler obtained his PhD in Economics from MIT in 1994. He has been teaching subsequently at Stockholm University. His research has covered areas of dynamic public finance, social mobility, growth and climate change. His work has been published in American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy and many other international journals.

He is member of the Prize Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, where he has served since December 2009 apart for one year. He was the Chairman of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council 2013-16 and is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences.

He worked as advisor to the Swedish Ministry of Finance during the financial crisis and is a member of the Finance Minister's Economic Council He serves as scientific advisor to several Swedish government agencies. He was member of the European Economic Advisory Group between 2008 and 2012. He has also been a member of the Bellagio group of academics and central bankers.

Paul Hugues is Energy Analyst in the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook team. His main area of work are industrial material production impact on the energy system and the environment.

He also focuses on technologies, innovation and policy framework enabling the transition of the energy industry.

Before working on industry, Paul worked as Energy Analyst on the transport sector as well as biogas and biomethane supply.

Paul holds a PhD in Applied Mathematics to Energy Systems from Mines Paris PSL.

Suzi Kerr is a Senior Vice President and the Chief Economist at Environmental Defense Fund. She was, until May 2019, a Senior Fellow, and from 1998-2009 Founding Director, at Motu Research in New Zealand. She graduated from Harvard University in 1995 with a PhD in Economics. She has also worked at the University of Maryland at College Park, Resources for the Future (USA), and the Joint Center for the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT.  She was a Visiting Professor at Stanford University for the 2009/10 year, and at the University of the Andes in Bogotá, Colombia in the first half of 2014. In 2018, she was President of the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society. Her research work focuses on domestic and international climate-change mitigation policy with special emphasis on emissions pricing and natural climate solutions. She is the leader of the international 'Climate Action Teams' initiative. She is a member of the Advisory Boards for the Climate Econometrics group at Oxford and the International Emissions Trading Association 'Markets for Natural Climate Solutions' initiative.

Mr Lesetja Kganyago was appointed Governor of the South African Reserve Bank on 9 November 2014, and reappointed for a second five-year term on 9 November 2019. He is the Chairperson of the Monetary Policy Committee, and the Financial Stability Committee. Prior to his appointment as Governor, Mr Kganyago served as Deputy Governor of the SARB from 16 May 2011 until his elevation to Governor.

Mr Kganyago chairs the Committee of Central Bank Governors of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), co-chairs the Financial Stability Board's Regional Consultative Group for Sub-Saharan Africa, and chairs the Financial Stability Board's Standing Committee on Standards Implementation. In addition, Until recently he served as the Chairperson of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, which is the primary advisory board to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Board of Governors, from 18 January 2018 – 17 January 2021

Before joining the SARB, Mr Kganyago was the Director-General of the National Treasury. He represented South Africa at international organisations such as the World Bank, the IMF, the G20 and the African Development Bank. In this role, he served as the Chair of the Development Committee Deputies and also co-chaired a G20 Working Group on the reform of the IMF. He holds an MSc in Economics from SOAS University of London and a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Economics and Accounting from the University of South Africa. He also received various training in Finance, Economics and Management.

Mamokete Lijane is the Chairperson of ERSA, and a Strategist in Global Markets at Standard Bank CIB. She has with 22 years' experience as an analyst in financial markets. Her career spans all areas of non-equity investment research, including macroeconomics, credit and rates on both the buys and the sell sides of the investment business. Mamokete has a deep interest in the intersection between public policy, economics and financial markets.

Professor Mercedes Maroto-Valer (FRSE, FIChemE, FRSC, FRSA, FEI) is Champion and Director of the UK Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre (IDRIC) focused on accelerating the transition to net zero of the UK industrial clusters and establishing the first world net-zero industrial cluster. Mercedes is Deputy Principal for Global Sustainability and Director of the Research Centre for Carbon Solutions (RCCS) at Heriot-Wat University. Her internationally recognised track record covers energy systems, CCUS, integration of hydrogen technologies and low-carbon fuels. She has over 550 publications, holds leading positions in professional societies and editorial boards and has received numerous international prizes and awards.

Dr Sabine Mauderer has been Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank since September 2018. She is responsible for the Directorates Human Resources, Procurement and Markets, which includes the implementation of monetary policy. In this capacity, she is currently Vice-Chair of the "Central banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)", before becoming Chair of the network in the beginning of 2024. Additionally, she is a member of the Exchange Experts Commission.

Prior to her current responsibilities, she held several senior positions at the KfW Banking group and worked as a senior adviser at the Federal Ministry of Finance and at the German Embassy in Washington.

Sabine Mauderer was born in Schleswig in 1970. She studied law in Germany and Spain, holds a PhD by the Osnabrück University and an Executive MBA by the ESSEC & Mannheim Business School.

Mr Ravi Menon was appointed Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in 2011. He was previously Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI) and Deputy Secretary at the Ministry of Finance (MOF).

Mr Menon began his career at MAS in 1987. During his 16 years in MAS, he was involved in monetary policy; econometric forecasting; organisational development; banking regulation and liberalisation; and integrated supervision of complex financial institutions. Mr Menon spent a year at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, as a member of the secretariat to the Financial Stability Forum. A recipient of the Singapore Government's Meritorious Service Medal and Public Administration (Gold) Medal, Mr Menon has served on a variety of boards in the public, private, and people sectors in Singapore. On the international front, Mr Menon chairs the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. He is also a member of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Steering Committee. Mr Menon holds a Master's in Public Administration from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Social Science (Honours) in Economics from the National University of Singapore.

Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva became Deputy General Manager of the BIS on 1 October 2015. As Deputy General Manager, he is also responsible for the Bank's risk, audit and compliance functions.

Before joining the BIS, Mr Pereira da Silva had been Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Brazil since 2010. Prior to that, he worked in various positions for the World Bank in Washington DC, Tokyo and southern Africa. He also served as Chief Economist for the Brazilian Ministry of Budget and Planning, and as Brazil's Deputy Finance Minister in charge of international affairs.

Mr Pereira da Silva holds a doctorate in economics and MPhil from Panthéon-Sorbonne University, and graduated from the École des Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris and the Institut d'Études Politiques (Sciences Po) in Paris.

Debora Revoltella is Director of the Economics Department of the European Investment Bank, serving as Chief Economist. Since her arrival in 2011, Debora has designed and led the work for flagship publications such as the EIB Investment Report. She launched the idea and led the process for the design and implementation of the EIB Investment Survey, a survey covering 12,500 European firms which has become a unique asset in understanding investment dynamics in Europe. Debora holds a degree in Economics, a Master in Economics from Bocconi University and a PhD in Economics from the University of Ancona, Italy. She is member of the Steering Committees of the Vienna Initiative and the CompNet, an alternate member of the Board of the Joint Vienna Institute and a member of the Boards of the SUERF and the Euro 50 Group.

Nicholas Stern is IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government and Chair, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. He has held posts at other UK and overseas universities, and as Chief Economist at both the EBRD and the World Bank. He was Head, UK Government Economic Service 2003-2007, and produced the Stern Review on the economics of climate change. He was President of the Royal Economic Society (2018-2019).  He was President of the British Academy (July 2013-2017) and was elected Fellow of the Royal Society (June 2014). He was knighted for services to economics (2004), made a life peer (2007), and appointed Companion of Honour for services to economics, international relations and tackling climate change in 2017.  He has published more than 15 books and 100 articles.

James H. Stock is Vice Provost for Climate and Sustainability, Harvard University; the Director of the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability, Harvard University; and the Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University. His current research includes energy and environmental economics with a focus on fuels and on U.S. climate change policy. He is co-author, with Mark Watson, of a leading undergraduate econometrics textbook. In 2013–2014, he served as Member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, where his portfolio included macroeconomics and energy and environmental policy. He was Chair of the Harvard Economics Department from 2007–2009. He holds a MS in Statistics and a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

James Thurlow is the Director of Foresight and Policy Modeling at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). He oversees IFPRI's research on the drivers of inclusive and sustainable development, including the linkages between climate change and global food security. James' own research uses economywide models to study the interactions between public policy and agri-food systems; structural, climate and demographic change; and livelihoods, poverty, and food security. He has worked closely with researchers and governments across Africa and Asia to strengthen modeling capabilities and enhance the coherence of national development strategies. James has recently worked with development partners to evaluate the impacts of the ongoing global food crises.

François Villeroy de Galhau is the Governor of the Banque de France, and the Chair of the BIS Board of Directors. A former ENA student and Inspector of Finance, he joined the French Treasury in 1988 (Africa desk, then Europe desk) and subsequently became European advisor to the Minister of Finance and then Prime Minister (Pierre Bérégovoy) from 1990 to 1993. He went on to hold various positions at the French Treasury, before becoming financial advisor at the Permanent Representation of France in Brussels. From 1997 to 2000, he was chief of staff of the Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (Dominique Strauss-Kahn, then Christian Sautter). He was head of the French General Tax Directorate from 2000 to 2003. In 2003, he became the Chief Executive Officer of Cetelem, then headed BNP Paribas' retail banking activities in France (2008). François Villeroy de Galhau served as Chief Operating Officer of BNP Paribas group, in charge of domestic markets and corporate social responsibility from 1 December 2011 until 1 May 2015, when the French government entrusted him with an assignment on business investment financing. In September 2015, the then President of the French Republic, François Hollande, nominated him for the position of Governor of the Banque de France. After receiving the approval of the Parliament, he was appointed Governor of the Banque de France in the Council of Ministers on 30 September 2015 and took office on 1 November 2015 for a 6-year term. In October 2021, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron proposed that he be reappointed for a second term, a decision approved by the members of Parliament and then ratified by the Council of Ministers on 27 October 2021. François Villeroy de Galhau is a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Chairman of the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR). He has notably published "L'espérance d'un Européen" (Odile Jacob, 2014) and "Retrouver confiance en l'économie" (Odile Jacob, 2021).

Green Swan Conference 2023: Day 1

The third edition of Green Swan Conference brings together a wide range of high-calibre policymakers, experts and practitioners from different sectors to discuss in more detail climate transition and the real economy. Day 1 focuses on new technologies and scaling up already feasible solutions.

Green Swan Conference 2023: Day 2

The third edition of Green Swan Conference brings together a wide range of high-calibre policymakers, experts and practitioners from different sectors to discuss in more detail climate transition and the real economy. Day 2 focuses on the macroeconomic implications of the transition.